Friday, December 2

The war in Ukraine is half a year old with no sign of peace in sight

Criteria noted during screening have not yet been met. First World War to attribute such a description, but the lightning invasion released on February 24 by Vladimir Putin against the neighbor Ukraine does exactly half-year is on the way to becoming what was called at that time, in the first decade of the last century, as war of attrition, positions or trenches, as preferred. Since early spring, territorial gains in the conflict in the Slavic country are being very fewand both sides have assumed that the war will go on for a long time, digging miles and miles of craters, bunkers Y defensive positions along the front. Despite the complicated military reality that is taking shape, neither in kyiv nor in Moscow the idea of ​​initiating peace negotiations with the adversary for an eventual ceasefire seems break through.

“To begin with, neither President Putin nor members of his entourage have shown any willingness to negotiate seriously,” he says. in a long article Steven Piperprincipal investigator of Talbot Center for Security, Strategy and Technology. This expert recalls the most outstanding and unflattering interventions made in this regard by members of the Kremlin leader’s entourage, in particular those of Nikolai Patrushevsecretary of the National Security Council, who assured in July that the war would continue until the objectives declared by the Russian president at the beginning of the war were fulfilled, including the “denazification” from the country “to 100%“, or those of Sergei Lavrovthe Foreign Minister, who declared that the offensive sought to bring down the “unacceptable regime” in kyiv.

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Loss of national territory

Ukraine, for its part, chastened by the lessons of the past and having lost 13% of its national territory since the beginning of hostilities, refuses for the time being to give up any region or province to agree to a truce without no guarantees. “The ceasefires of September 2014 Y february 2015supposedly to end the Donbas hostilitiesleft Russian forces and their Donbas allies in control of large portions of territory, which they never gave up and from which they never stopped firing,” Pifer maintains. “Furthermore, the Russian Army could use the ceasefire to regroup, rearm and throw new attacks against Ukraine,” recalls the analyst.

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With tables on the war front, everything indicates that it will be in the rearguards of the respective sides where a battle as or more important as the one that is taking place will be fought on the terrain. “The war in Ukraine will be long and it will spread; the outcome of the war will depend on how long the West sustains the effort with arms and financial support; in the end, everything will depend on the (state) of public opinion” in the allied countries, sentence Melinda Harrissenior researcher at the Eurasia Center of the Institute for Foreign Policy Research.

harsh and harsh winter

And in Moscow, according to what has happened in recent days, the Kremlin may not have its back as covered as is sometimes assumed from the outside. After examining the different hypotheses behind the attack that caused the death of Daria Duguinathe daughter of Aleksandr Duginone of the main ideologues of the regime -internal purge of the regime or attack organized from abroad- Nicholas of Petersenior researcher at Institute for Statecraftremember in an article in The Spanish that an attack “does not seem to be good news for the Putin regime”, while warning about possible internal instabilities: “Perhaps the winter will be harsher and harsher in Moscow, despite its large gas reserves”.

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