Sunday, December 5

The weather in Alicante: the heatwave will burn us from Thursday

According to Jorge Olcina, all these changes are related to the climate crisis, but the pandemic covid It has also been a “sock” that has abruptly warned us of the need to change our discourse in the relationship of human beings with their environment, with their territory. The commitment to sustainability is a path without turning back. What is done in these months to improve the quality of life of citizens in the city is the roadmap that must be maintained in the coming decades. Climate change is no longer scientific evidence. “It is no longer a belief. We have scientific data to support it,” Olcina emphasizes. The data is there: the 2010-20 decade was the warmest in recent history, since 1850 with an increase of 1.2 degrees already, so there is only 0.8º C of margin left according to the Paris Agreement, which seeks to keep the increase in the average global temperature below two degrees above the levels pre-industrial, and pursue efforts to limit the rise to 1.5 ° C, recognizing that this would significantly reduce the risks and effects of climate change

The heating atmospheric is affecting daily times, that is, to the general atmospheric circulation, there are more cold drops now than before. Olcina recalls that the climate projections tell us about a climate that is “less thermally comfortable -especially in summer-, less rainy overall, although with regional nuances and with more frequent development of extreme events. The rise in sea level on the Mediterranean coast it will not be very accused. The biggest problem is the higher frequency of maritime storms. This forces us to reconsider the 2013 Coastal Law.

More heat and less comfortable in the middle of the summer, but prolongation towards the extremes of the tourist season. The “sun and beach” does not end but climate change will improve the possibilities of inland tourism. Very good prospects for use in the autumn, spring and even winter months.

This week, the second of the month of August, It will be hot in most of Spain and with little rainfall, according to data from the State Meteorological Agency (AEMET). In this sense, the spokesman for the state agency, Rubén del Campo, has indicated that August has started fresh in many areas of Spain. In fact, on day 1 there were very low minimum temperatures, such as the 3.8 centigrade minimum registered in Burgos.

“It should be noted that, since the mid-1980s, such low values ​​were not reached in the heat of heatwave in this city, in Burgos, and that is one of the coldest in Spain,” Del Campo pointed out. Subsequently, temperatures have recovered And this Friday will be a hot day, although on Saturday the 7th the temperatures will drop in almost all of Spain, except in the eastern tip of the peninsula, where they will rise.

Just the opposite happened yesterday: temperature drop in el Mediterranean area and rise in the rest. “We will have in general, again, a fresh weekend for the time in our country, if we except the regions bathed by the Mediterranean,” he added.

That thermal rise, which already begins on Sunday, will continue for a good part of next week in practically all of Spain. As of Tuesday and especially on Wednesday, the heat will be the protagonist, with maximum temperatures above 35C in many areas of the Peninsula and the Balearic Islands, and more than 38º in points of the southern third and the Ebro basin.

The nights will also be hot. In the Mediterranean it will not drop below 22ºC, also with high relative humidity that will increase the feeling of embarrassment. Nor will it drop below 22ºC in many parts of the Ebro, central and southern half as of Wednesday.

“At the moment, the prediction models indicate that this heat, although it will be intense, will not initially lead to very extreme values, but will persist for several days. What the prediction models tell us: intense, but not extreme, heat, but persistent, “said the AEMET spokesperson.

In addition, little rain is expected, which this weekend may fall in the form of showers in parts of the north, also in Catalonia and the Valencian Community. Next week rainfall will be low.

During the second half of August, these high temperatures above normal could continue: first, in the eastern third of the peninsula and the Balearic Islands, with the heat extending towards the west and much of the south at the end of the month.

June had a temperature higher than one tenth to its normal average and July one tenth lower, so that, with the first two months already over, the summer of 2021, for the moment, has a temperature that coincides with its normal average. “We will see where the August balance falls, although as we say, at the moment it seems likely that it will end up being warm,” the spokesman stressed.

On the other hand, a recent report warns that more than un 7% of all deaths recorded per year are attributable to temperature. Cold temperatures had an impact on mortality up to ten times higher than warm ones. However, projections made using epidemiological models indicate that, if effective mitigation measures are not introduced immediately, the trend could be reversed by the middle of this century, leading to a rapid increase in heat-attributable mortality.

“All the models indicate a progressive increase in temperatures and, consequently, a decrease in mortality attributable to cold and an increase in deaths attributable to heat. The difference between the scenarios is in the rate at which the increase occurs. of deaths associated with heat, “explained ISGlobal researcher and first author of the study, Èrica Martínez.

The data, he continues, point to a stabilization and even a decrease in the total mortality figures attributable to temperatures in the coming years, followed by a very pronounced increase, which could occur from the middle of the century or towards the end of the century. same, based on greenhouse gas emissions.

The researcher Marcos Quijal, who shares the first authorship of the study, has reported that in recent decades, the warming in Europe it has occurred at a faster rate than on any other continent.

“The incidence of this phenomenon is uneven, since the Mediterranean countries are more vulnerable than the rest. Our models also foresee a disproportionate increase in the heat attributable mortality in the countries of the Mediterranean arc, due to a significant rise in temperatures in the summer months and the higher vulnerability to heat “, has said.

The projections indicate a very notable increase in deaths from extreme heat, to the point that, in the scenario of higher emissions without adaptation, these would exceed the mortality attributable to cold.

“Our results confirm the urgency of adopting global mitigation measures, since if they are only adopted in specific countries or regions they will not be effective. Furthermore, a factor that will be decisive and that we have not introduced in our models is our capacity to adapt. to the new scenarios, which is already helping to reduce our vulnerability to temperatures “, says the researcher from ISGlobal and last author of the study, Joan Ballester.

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