Thursday, March 28

the wolf ears



The theater has been greatly invigorated since the counteroffensive on the Kharkov front, which began almost a month ago, allowed Ukrainian troops to advance to the Oskil River and recapture Izium; as well as, last Saturday, after surrounding it, also Limán. The Russian defenders of this, in an entity equivalent to an infantry brigade, managed to exfiltrate breaking the Ukrainian siege. It was another important battle lost by the Russian troops. For them it meant a reduction in the occupied territory and a strong blow against their combat morale (and inversely, for the Ukrainians). Likewise, the defeated lost the cover of the Russian effort (now in auction) towards Sloviansk and Kramatorsk on their northern flank. There are many hot spots, of which two seem the most significant. On the one hand, the Russian disaster has opened the doors to the Ukrainian penetration towards the Lugansk oblast, along the general direction marked by the P07 highway, with the immediate tactical objective in Svatove. This locality also seems to be the target of another advance, converging with the previous one, coming from the Oskil-Limán area. If such penetrations achieved the fall of Svatove, the Ukrainian troops could choose to continue the progression either along the general direction of P07 towards Starobilsk, or via P66 towards Severodonetsk (which the Russian troops took so much effort to conquer). In any case, the Russian side is obliged to defend Starobilsk at all costs. Because if this city returned to Ukrainian hands, they would have the door open to advance, from north to south, in the direction of Lugansk. And, probably, that would mean the collapse of the Russian operations in the Donbass. On the other hand, in the south, in the area of ​​Kherson, the Ukrainian troops, in their attempt to expel the Russians from the occupied territory west of the Dnieper, are making some progress parallel to the course of the river. The growing effectiveness of Ukrainian artillery is clearly perceived, with the experience gained in the use of heavy fire means received from NATO countries, especially the US. With ranges somewhat greater than 80 kilometers, they can already bombard vital Russian logistics facilities east of the Dnieper, supporting both its troops across the river and those occupying territory northwest of Crimea. The Russian paradigm The Russian paradigm has mutated. It now stands on two pillars. One is the mobilization to incorporate up to 300,000 new troops into the arms. A step with doubtful results, because an army is not improvised, especially when things go wrong. It is an acknowledgment of operational weakness that suggests new levies soon. The other, in violation of international law, after an urgent and fraudulent process of ‘referendums’, are the annexations to the Russian Federation of the oblasts of Lugansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson. Absurd maneuver, ratified this Monday by the Duma, when not even Russia dominates the total of those territories. With this new paradigm, Putin tries to invert ‘the weight of proof’, transubstantiating himself from attacker to attacked. insane And, in addition, showing his nuclear power up his sleeve. This shows a stubborn castling and a determination to turn back difficult. Especially, if he resorted to the use of all the actions and resources available to him, which are still many, to achieve his goals. Related News standard Yes The US response to a nuclear attack in Ukraine: wipe out the Russian Army Javier Ansorena Experts in security and defense such as David Petraeus call for an aggressive reaction Everything seems to be going haywire. At all levels: political, economic, energy, banking…. The supreme synthesis of such a situation has been the failed attempt to pass a resolution condemning Russia in the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). Such resolution, as expected, has been aborted by the Russian veto, impudently revealing the ineffectiveness of the UNSC in the case. Without forgetting that the abstentions of China, India, Brazil (and Gabon) also have their meaning, since these first three countries together represent slightly more than 40% of the world population. Zelensky’s fervent request for Ukraine’s urgent entry into NATO is also an example of disorder of the Washington Treaty. Apart from legal and procedural considerations, and despite the support for the request by some allied countries (from the former Soviet orbit), such accession will not materialize. It would be to encourage escalation by the Atlantic Alliance. In short, it seems clear that, as long as Putin remains at the helm of Russia, there is no possible agreement, no “peaceful” solution to the conflict. While the war scenario becomes more dynamic, the international scenario becomes globalized. And the wolf of a planetary conflagration is showing its ears. ABOUT THE AUTHOR Pedro Pitarch The author is a retired Army Lieutenant General. He was head of the Eurocorps and the Land Force and general director of Defense Policy in the Zapatero government. He was head of the Strategy and Military Cooperation Division of the Defense General Staff, as well as the Logistics Division of the NATO Supreme Command.


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