Wednesday, October 27

The youngest, between the right and More Madrid | Elections in Madrid 4M


The candidate Mónica García (in yellow) and Íñigo Errejón (in the center), along with other leaders of Más Madrid, in an electoral act on the 18th in Vallecas.
The candidate Mónica García (in yellow) and Íñigo Errejón (in the center), along with other leaders of Más Madrid, in an electoral act on the 18th in Vallecas.Europa Press News / Europa Press via Getty Images

Madrid is tilted slightly to the right, although not as much as voting intention polls seem to indicate. At least, this is shown by the definition of their own ideology that citizens offer to the questions of the Sociological Research Center (CIS). On the usual scale of one to nine, from extreme left to extreme right, 41.8% of those surveyed are on the right, 39.1% on the left and 19.1% in that five which indicates what which would be the right center.

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There are two age groups that are clearly unbalanced towards conservative positions. One is not at all surprising: those over 65, among whom identification with the various positions on the right rises to 43.8%, two points more than the general population. The other is more striking because they are the youngest voters, some even first-timers, those between the ages of 18 and 24. There, the advantage of the right-wing positions is also wider than in the average of the electorate: 43.4% of those surveyed are located in them, compared to 38.7% on the left and 17.9% in the center. In the direct and spontaneous response —that is, without subsequent cooking— the direct intention to vote in this age group may be even more striking: 20.1% for the PP, 17.9% for Más Madrid, 9.7% to Vox, 6.7% to Unidas Podemos and only 6% to the PSOE. It is true that this sector of the census also seems the least mobilized: young people who say they will vote for sure are ten points below the average.

The Socialists, who present the oldest candidate by far (Angel Gabilondo is 72 years old), find difficulties among the youngest bands of the electorate, as can be deduced from the CIS data. In the section of those who are under 45 years old, the PSOE is surpassed by Más Madrid, not only in direct voting intention but also in the calculation made by the analysts of the public institute, adding what is called sympathy for the party. Moreover, among those under 35, in spontaneous responses it is even ahead of the socialists United We Can, which is no longer the youngest in the electoral market, although it retains a certain strength among those around, above or below, the thirty.

The small print of the CIS poll confirms the enormous pull of Isabel Díaz Ayuso among the voters most inclined to the right. And the further to the right, the better they value you. It is precisely the sector that is situated in the most extreme position of that arc (that of the nine) the most enthusiastic when evaluating his political performance: 65.3% give him the highest mark, a percentage that falls to 7.6% among those who they are in the center (a five). In that hard core of the right wing, the Madrid president also clearly beats the Vox candidate, Rocío Monasterio. This is given the highest mark by 33% of its 2019 voters, while Ayuso achieves outstanding among the 40% of those who supported Vox two years ago.

Differences due to religious beliefs

Few such sharp divisions are found in the electorate as marked by religious beliefs. The most fervent Catholicism overwhelmingly supports the right: among the Madrilenians who declare themselves practitioners, the PP overwhelms and Vox appears second in direct intention ahead of the PSOE. The poll also confirms what has claimed to be one of the distinguishing emblems of Ciudadanos: its secularism. Among those who declare themselves practicing Catholics, it has even less intention to vote than Más Madrid and is very on par with United We Can.

Unlike Ayuso, Gabilondo’s best evaluations are found, as expected, in the moderate center and left positions, although he also gets the support of a quarter of those at the extreme left of the arc ( the one). The PSOE is more solid in the middle ages and in the cities of the metropolitan belt. PP and Unidos Podemos, on the other hand, slightly improve their results in the capital.

Iglesias is once again the candidate with the worst grade (3.1, two tenths less than Monasterio), although his political background generally elicits less rejection than Vox. United We Can and the party of Santiago Abascal agree on another thing: they are the two that have the greatest male weight among those who declare their voters. Another disturbing fact for Iglesias is that, among those who are in the most leftist position, there are almost as many who give it the worst grade (12.1%) as those who give it the best (13.1%).

More than one, it may also surprise you that almost 60% of those consulted say that the pandemic will have little or no influence on their vote. There are no major differences between left and right, although there are some between the sexes: women will take more account of the health crisis.

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