Friday, June 18

This is how the polls are in Madrid: the options to win for the left and right | Elections in Madrid 4M

The right wing comes with an advantage to the first debate of the campaign in Madrid. Dozens of polls have been published that right now place the PP as the most voted party (around 41% -42% in votes), followed by PSOE (23%), Más Madrid (13% -14%), Vox (9 %), United We Can (7%) and Citizens (4%).

But, in addition, there are some tendencies on the left. The PSOE has dropped one point in two weeks, and Unidos Podemos perhaps a few tenths, while More Madrid rose: Mónica García’s party has gone from 12.5% ​​to 13.5%.

The outcome of the elections depends on two keys: the entry of Citizens and the exact balance of votes between the blocks. The sum of PP and Vox is around 50% of votes and is six points ahead of the sum of PSOE, Más Madrid and Podemos (44%). But let’s see how that translates into seats and the odds of victory.

The prediction of seats

The graph below represents our estimate of seats from the average number of polls. The PP would be around 60 deputies, followed by PSOE (33), Más Madrid (19), Vox (13), Unidas Podemos (10) and Ciudadanos (0 probable result; 2 on average).

To make this estimate we use a statistical model and simulate the elections 15,000 times. The model is fed by soundings and incorporates a key piece of information: its historical success. The result is wide forks, but not whimsical, because they represent the precision that soundings have had in the past. The detailed methodology can be consulted at the end of the text.

So it is easy to see the uncertainty. The polls are wrong by a couple of points per game, and it is normal to see errors of three or four points with some. That explains that, for example, the most likely result of the PP is to achieve 61 seats, but that its 90% probability interval goes from 50 to 69 seats. In other words, one out of every twenty times we would see the PP above (or below) those figures.

The key: who will reach the majority

The main advantage of having a prediction model is that it allows you to attribute probabilities to different outcomes, something that polls cannot do on their own. In this way we can answer the key question of these elections: Which parties have the option of adding the 69 necessary deputies? The graph shows the summary:

  • 3 out of 4 times (77%) there will be a right-wing majority (PP and Vox). Of the 15,000 simulations, that’s how often the two parties add up the 69 seats they need
  • 1 out of 10 times (12%) there will be a majority of the left (PSOE, MM and UP). It is the probability that something happens that gives them an advantage: a change in the next few days or an error in the polls. This includes the possibility that both Vox and Ciudadanos fall 5%, and Isabel Díaz Ayuso will be left without partners.
  • 1 out of 10 times (8%) Citizens will be decisive. This is the combined probability that two things will happen, (1) that Cs will exceed 5% of the vote and win seats (20% probability), and (2) that those seats will need right and left.
  • And… 1 in 50 times there will be a tie. As the assembly distributes an even number of seats, it may happen that PP-Vox and PSOE-MM-UP tie at 68 seats.

This last graph summarizes the forecasts of the polls for these elections, taking into account what they all point together and also the probability they have of being wrong. I will update it from today until the latest polls are published.

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