The elections in Madrid are being a roller coaster. The call came by surprise to move the polls; As has happened now after the decision of Pablo Iglesias to be the candidate of Podemos. But what is the situation now?
The polls are led by the PP, with around 39% of votes, followed by PSOE (25%), Vox (11%), Más Madrid (11%), Podemos (9%) and Ciudadanos (4%). . But it is useful to pay attention to trends as well, because as the graph shows, almost all matches have moved in the last ten days.
Iglesias’ candidacy seems to be having an effect and Podemos rises to 9%, moving away from the abyss of 5%, that high threshold that by electoral law prevents parties with fewer votes from entering the distribution of seats in the Community of Madrid. That rise of Podemos has presumably been paid for by his rivals on the left: More Madrid has fallen one point this week and the PSOE two.
On the right, the vote continues to be coordinated in Isabel Díaz Ayuso: the PP obtained 20% of the votes in 2019, it was around 30% last fall, 35% a week ago and now it is close to 39%. In these months, the party to fall has been Ciudadanos, which is already below the 5% threshold and could be left out of the Assembly, but in the last week Vox has also lost support: it fell from 13% to 11%.
These movements could diminish in the coming days, because we are talking about a few polls, although in general the different pollsters observe similar movements. It is also relevant, however, to look at what is not changing: for the moment the blocks remain unchanged. The sum of PP, Vox and Cs has barely changed since the call: they continue to hover around 53% -54% of votes, a couple of points more than in 2019, and therefore with an advantage.
Seats and possible majorities
I then use the vote estimates from the polls to estimate each party’s seats and possible majorities. These are rough figures – polls are often two or three points wrong per game – but useful for exploring what might happen.
In the central scenario, taking the average of polls as is, Ciudadanos would run out of seats, but the sum of Vox and the PP would achieve some 72 deputies, three more than those essential to have a majority. In the Assembly there will be 136 seats: with 68 there is a tie and with 69 you have control.
The advantage of the PP and Vox is clear, but not definitive. In the polls they add 49% of the vote, but with Citizens below 5%, if the left were on the rise or the polls were wrong, the result would not be very difficult to change. A couple of points would be enough to leave the camera tied, with 47% for PP and Vox, and another 47% for PSOE, Más Madrid and Podemos. That the polls are wrong in a couple of points with the blocks is not very frequent, but it happened, for example, in the last Andalusian elections.
A last interesting scenario is that Ciudadanos exceeds 5% of the vote and gets seats. If it achieves 5.1%, subtracting one point from the PP, the majorities may change. On the right, the entry of Inés Arrimadas’ party may prevent PP and Vox from joining, but makes it more likely that they will join the three. And something similar happens on the left: PSOE, Más Madrid and Podemos would have the majority further away, but an alternative can be opened to them by convincing Cs. The arrival of the Arrimadas party is a chaotic factor, which makes the outcome less predictable and may even become the decisive actor. But it is an option with probabilities that diminish with the rate of their votes.
Eddie is an Australian news reporter with over 9 years in the industry and has published on Forbes and tech crunch.