Week 7 of the 2021 NFL season begins Thursday night when Cleveland hosts Denver in an AFC showdown. If history tells us anything, bettors should invest in the Broncos. Denver has beaten Cleveland 12 of the last 13 times these two teams have met since 1991.
Bettors witnessed significant movement along this line Wednesday following news that Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield would miss the game due to his shoulder injury. Oddsmakers immediately downgraded the Browns from 3.5-point home favorites through the leading number of three to a demand of just 2.5 points in Sports betting YES. In total, the differential has dropped 3.5 points since their first Denver game as 6-point underdogs.
Case Keenum will replace Baker Mayfield in center against a Denver defense that will allow 229.2 passing yards per game (11th) and the sixth fewest passing passing touchdowns (7) in six games. After starting the season 3-1 outright and against the spread, the Browns have struggled lately posting a 0-2 SU and ATS mark following losses to the Chargers and Cardinals.
The Broncos, which started the season 3-0 SU and ATS, have also calmed down, going 0-3 in both categories since Week 4. In their first six games, the Broncos have been the favorites, however, by first time this season. Denver now finds itself in the role of homeless. Denver was being overrated by punters after wins over the Giants, Jaguars and Jets, who have a combined 3-14 record this season. In their three consecutive losses to the Ravens, Steelers and Raiders who have a combined 12-6, they were outscored 84-50.
Isaiah J. Downing / USA TODAY Sports
Denver Broncos vs Cleveland Browns Betting Trends and Information
- Spread: Denver Broncos +2.5 (-110) | Cleveland Browns -2.5 (-110)
- Money line: Denver (+105) | Cleveland (-125)
- Total: 41– More (-110) | Less than 41 (-110)
- Public betting percentages (spread): CLE 38% | CLE 62%
- Game information: Thursday, October 21, 2021 8:20 pm EST | NFL Network
As mentioned above, the line has fallen since opening in favor of Cleveland as a home favorite by 6 points over Denver in Sports betting YES to now show the Broncos as road losers of just 2.5 points. The total, which opened at 44, has started to see significant action on base, pulling the line down to 41.
Get fantasy and betting analytics delivered to your inbox by signing up for the Winners Club newsletter
Browns Player Props Information
The Broncos (3-3 SU; 3-3 ATS), who have allowed the fourth fewest points per game this season (18.3), will now face an offensive attack from the Browns led by a backup quarterback who also lacks Nick Chubb (calf) and Kareem Hunt (knee). Star running backs have been critical to Cleveland’s success this season by leading the way to the top-ranked running game in the NFL with 168.5 yards per game on the ground.
In a short week, the Browns will deploy an offensive backfield of D’Ernest Johnson and Demetric Felton against a Denver defense that has allowed the fourth fewest rushing yards per game (85.5). Johnson, who is expected to take over the workload Thursday night, has a 59.5 yard proposition market. The Browns’ passing attack could also be without wide receivers Odell Beckham (shoulder) and Jarvis Landry (knee).
Broncos Player Props Information
On the other side of the ball, the Broncos have solid wide receiver production from Courtland Sutton and Tim Patrick. Teddy Bridgewater, who has thrown multiple touchdowns in four of six games, has completed 70.2 percent of his passes for 1,514 yards and 10 touchdowns. The veteran has had ball safety issues the past two games throwing four interceptions after failing to deliver the ball in the first four games. Bridgewater will now face a Browns defense that has given up eight aerial touchdowns in the last two games to Kyler Murray (4) and Justin Herbert (4).
Odds makers project that Sutton will lead the game in receiving yards as Sports betting YES he has his receiving yard betting market set at 64.5. My projections have Sutton, who has surpassed this posted number in three out of six games this season, beating his betting proposition number Thursday night. In his last two games, the fourth-year receiver has led the club with 25 goals resulting in 15 receptions, 214 receiving yards and two touchdowns. On the field for more than 88% of plays in the past two weeks, fantasy managers should insert Sutton into all of their lineups in Week 7.
Additionally, tight end Noah Fant has racked up 18 receptions for 163 yards and two touchdowns in the past three weeks and was on the field 93% of plays in that span. Fant is averaging 6 receptions per game of 8.3 goals. That type of production results in strong value endorsement in more than 3.5 receptions currently offered in Sports betting YES.
The Broncos also have reliable options in the running game in veteran Melvin Gordon, as well as rookie Javonte Williams, who has a maximum of three rushing touchdowns. Williams averages 6.4 yards per carry, has a projected rushing yards of 47.5 in Sports betting YES. The former North Carolina standout has exceeded the posted lawsuit in four of six games. I would also look at his 2.5 total reception with a +145 probability thanks to his recent passing production. Williams has become a solid check-down option for Bridgewater, having had more than three receptions in four straight games. Additionally, Gordan has multiple catches in five of six games, making his 1.5+ catch market very intriguing.
Thursday Night Football Betting Tips From Frankie
The Browns will be without Baker Mayfield, Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt and possibly Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry. Despite being at home against ‘Dawg Pound’, all the injuries can simply prove too much to overcome. Case Kennum, a 10-year veteran, has a 28-36 career start record in the NFL, but we should note that he was 12-4 as a starter with the Vikings with Kevin Stefanksi in 2017.
Some of the best bets you can make in sports betting are the ones you don’t make. This game seems too easy to bet on the Broncos with more than 90% of offensive production this season for the Browns to wear street clothes. We know the old adage about when something seems to be too easy. Instead, let’s focus on some proposed bets for players that offer some value.
PROP BETS:
Melvin Gordon, RB, Broncos: More than 1.5 receptions
Courtland Sutton, WR Broncos: More than 64.5 receiving yards
Noah Fant, TE Broncos: More than 3.5 receptions
Trends:
- In the last three games, Denver has allowed 28 points per game
- Cleveland has allowed eight touchdown passes in its last two games.
- Denver is 12-1 in last 13 games against Cleveland
Betting SI 2021 Monday night football: 3-3 ATS / Props 5-4 +1.95 units
2021 Betting SI NFL Football YTD: 11-11 ATS & Props +1.35 Units
NFL American Football Betting SI 2020: 72-58-1 ATS (55%)
If you or someone you know has gambling problem and wants help:
Call 1-800-522-4700.
Frankie taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first DFS program offered at a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is a Senior Analyst at SI Betting and brings significant experience and resources to the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @ Frankie_Fantasy for his latest ideas on Las Vegas gambling and fantasy.
www.si.com
Eddie is an Australian news reporter with over 9 years in the industry and has published on Forbes and tech crunch.