Wednesday, April 17

Toledo vs. Central Michigan prediction, odds, line, spread: 2022 MAC Tournament picks, best from proven model

Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse in Cleveland hosts the 2022 MAC Tournament beginning on Thursday. The first game at the venue is a quarterfinal matchup between the Central Michigan Chippewas and the Toledo Rockets. CMU is the tournament’s No. 8 seed with a 7-22 record and a 6-12 mark in conference play, and the Chippewas are 1-8 in the last nine games overall. Toledo enters the week as the top seed with a 25-6 overall record and a 17-3 record in MAC contests.

The Rockets are listed as 17-point favorites for this 11 a.m. ET tipoff. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over-under, is 145.5 in the latest Toledo vs. Central Michigan odds at Caesars Sportsbook. Before making any Central Michigan vs. Toledo picks, you need to see the college basketball predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s advanced computer simulation model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. Over the past five-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated an impressive profit of almost $1,600 for $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Central Michigan vs. Toledo, and just locked in its picks and CBB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Now, here are several college basketball odds and betting lines for Toledo vs. Central Michigan:

  • Central Michigan vs. Toledo spread: Toledo -17 
  • Central Michigan vs. Toledo over-under: 145.5 points 
  • Central Michigan vs. Toledo money line: Toledo -2000, Central Michigan +1000
  • CMU: The Chippewas are 11-7 against the spread in MAC games 
  • TOL: The Rockets are 16-4 against the spread in MAC games

Why Central Michigan can cover

The Chippewas are stingy in key areas on defense. Central Michigan is No. 2 in the MAC in block rate, rejecting 11.1 percent of shot attempts. The Chippewas are also No. 4 in the conference in steal rate at 9.3 percent, and are holding opponents to 32.9 percent shooting from 3-point range in conference games. Toledo is tremendous on offense, but the Rockets do struggle in creating free- throw attempts, and Toledo is second-worst in the MAC in avoiding blocked shots, with more than 11 percent of shots rejected this season. 

On offense, Central Michigan is above-average nationally in 3-point shooting, making 34.5 percent of attempts, and the Chippewas are in the top five of the MAC in free-throw creation rate. Toledo doesn’t create much havoc, with the Rockets ranking second-worst in the MAC in turnover creation rate (15.4 percent) and steal rate (7.7 percent).

Why Toledo can cover

Toledo’s offense is unquestionably elite, leading the MAC in multiple categories. The Rockets are also very good on defense, ranking No. 2 in the conference in adjusted defensive efficiency. Toledo is No. 1 in the MAC in shooting efficiency allowed, with conference-leading marks in 2-point shooting allowed (44.9 percent) and 3-point shooting allowed (31.0 percent). Toledo also leads the MAC in free-throw prevention, and the Rockets are in the top four in defensive rebound rate at 72.8 percent. 

Central Michigan’s offense is scuffling overall, ranking second-worst in the MAC in efficiency, and the Chippewas are last in 2-point accuracy at 45.8 percent. Central Michigan is also below-average in turnover rate, committing a giveaway on 18.6 percent of possessions in conference games, and the Chippewas are worse than the MAC average in 3-point accuracy (32.6 percent) and free- throw accuracy (71.0 percent).

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How to make Central Michigan vs. Toledo picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the point total, with 11 players projected to score at least seven points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in almost 60 percent of simulations. You can only see the model’s Toledo vs. Central Michigan pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Central Michigan vs. Toledo? And which side of the spread hits in almost 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Central Michigan vs. Toledo spread you need to jump on Thursday, all from the model that has crushed its college basketball picks, and find out.  

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