The maps are official.
After a veto, a Special Session and a sit-in protest on the House floor, a congressional map drawn by Gov. Ron DeSantis has been signed into law. So, what does the political terrain in Florida now actually look like? Florida Politics presents a guided tour of P 0109, Florida’s now-28 congressional districts from Pensacola to Key West.
All maps are not zoomed in to scale. Red lines represent the baseline district lines. Partisan performance numbers all come from MCI Maps. While the new map leaves many candidates and incumbents living outside districts where they are filed, it’s important to note the law only required congressional representatives to live in their state, not their district.
Florida’s 1st Congressional District
Presumed incumbent: U.S. Rep. Matt Gaetz
2020 Presidential Election: Donald Trump 65.09%, Joe Biden 32.9%
I know. It always starts somewhere boring. Panhandle privilege is real, and represented by Gaetz, a Fort Walton Beach Republican. The nature of redistricting provides this region with a guarantee on a number and a tight, square shape. The Convex Hull score comes in at a very high 0.87. On the new map, the CD 1 seat will be a little tighter than today. U.S. 331 provides the district’s eastern border, with deviations for the Freeport municipal limits and to balance population. Trump won here by a wider margin than any district in Florida. And you can’t really blame gerrymandering. The boundaries of this district are locked on three sides by water or the state line. What can you do? Gaetz likely holds this seat as long as the GOP Primary electorate says he can. Democrats Phil Her, Rebekah Jones, and Margaret Schiller are fighting for the right to face him in November. Bryan Jones is challenging him in the primary, along with Jeremy Kelly, Greg Merk and Ralph Mills.
Florida’s 2nd Congressional District
Presumed incumbent: U.S. Rep. Neal Dunn
2020 Presidential Election: Trump 54.86%, Biden 43.83%
But things get interesting quick. In destroying Democratic Rep. Al Lawson’s North Florida seat, the map makes CD 2 cover a smaller geographic area. Population growth means the east border moves a bit further west of Panama City, the population center where incumbent Republican Dunn calls home. The district under this map becomes much more compact. The Convex Hull score rises from 0.68 to 0.82. Notably, the Polsby-Popper score cited heavily by Robert Popper of Judicial Watch during the Legislative Session shows less change, from 0.4 to 0.48. The new map makes the seat less red but is still a Trump +11 seat. Of note, under a similar configuration later tossed in court, Democrat Gwen Graham flipped this seat blue in 2014. But right now, the only opponents filed against Dunn, Republican Jovante Teague and independent Linda Brooks, hail respectively from Cross City and Ocala and no longer live in the district.
Florida’s 3rd Congressional District
Presumed incumbent: U.S. Rep. Kat Cammack
2020 Presidential Election: Trump 56.41%, Biden 42.36%
While Cammack, a Gainesville Republican, previously boasted the most compact district in Florida, the new map shifts CD 3 toward the Gulf Coast and changes that. This district also absorbs many of the rural areas in the Lawson seat but remains a safe Trump +14 seat, but one that now borders Georgia. It also reaches to the Gulf Coast. Geographically, this marks a huge shift in land for Cammack, who loses much of the Gainesville area as she takes on territory previously represented by Dunn. Republican Justin Walters, the only candidate filed besides Cammack to spend more than $10,000, remains in the district. So does Democrat Danielle Hawk. But Brooks could shift over from CD 2 and the Ocala independent would be the best funded non-incumbent in the race. Cammack, elected in 2020, likely still coasts to re-election but will need to introduce herself to a new western constituency.
Florida’s 4th Congressional District
Presumed incumbent: U.S. Rep. Al Lawson
2020 Presidential Election: Trump 52.61%, Biden 45.92%
The most controversial change DeSantis made in his map, this new CD 4 really stands in as the replacement to the Lawson seat. It’s hardly an analogous district though. The Black population in Jacksonville gets cleaved in half by the St. Johns River after DeSantis vetoed a map drawn by the Florida House that created a Duval-only Black seat. The Governor said using race as a motivating factor for drawing lines violates the equal protection clause. His map splits Duval and St. Johns counties and forms two GOP seats. This is the swinger seat at a mere Trump +7. The voting age population is 31.7% Black, compared to the 46.2% in Lawson’s existing district. Also, it scores just a 0.32 on Polsby-Popper, the second lowest compactness on the map for that measure. Who knows if Lawson runs. Jon Chuba, Lawson’s only opponent with more than $10,000 raised, actually now lives outside the district. State Sen. Aaron Bean, a Fernandina Beach Republican is exploring a bid.
Florida’s 5th Congressional District
Presumed incumbent: U.S. Rep. John Rutherford
2020 Presidential Election: Trump 57.1%, Biden 41.36%
As for CD 5, this is nearly a Trump +16 seat. This is where you would expect Jacksonville Republican Rutherford, a former Duval County Sheriff, to seek re-election. But this largely becomes a St. Johns County seat, which includes St. Augustine and the former DeSantis home base of Ponte Vedra. That means Rutherford gives up a lot of the city of Jacksonville and Nassau County. Of note, the Legislature’s draw of his district, similar to existing configuration, has been in some ways as criticized as much as the Lawson seat. Erick Aguilar, a Jacksonville Republican with three times the cash on hand of Rutherford, lives in this seat. So does Leigha Garner-Lopez, a Ponte Vedra Republican. As noted, so does Lawson challenger Chuba.
Florida’s 6th Congressional District
Presumed incumbent: U.S. Rep. Michael Waltz
2020 Presidential Election: Trump 61.29%, Biden 37.66%
You start to see the significant changes DeSantis’ map makes as you go down the state, and this draw of CD 6 makes for far more of an inland reach. That’s different than Deltona Republican Waltz’s district now or what DeSantis himself represented when he was elected here in 2012. A rounder district that captures much of Cammack country, it shed much of the coast south of Daytona Beach while grabbing in Palatka, Belleview and even part of The Villages in Lady Lake. The draw cuts out Orange City, home of Democratic opponent Richard Thripp, but he wasn’t a huge threat and had raised under $10,000. This map leaves the seat as one of Florida’s most red.
Florida’s 7th Congressional District
Presumed incumbent: None
2020 Presidential Election: Trump 52.1%, Biden 46.57%
The change to CD 7 is what most outside observers thought would be the big redistricting fight in Florida before DeSantis jumped into the conversation. Democratic Rep. Stephanie Murphy announced her retirement from Congress shortly after the Florida House published a draft map that turned her seat from light blue to light red. The final map isn’t a hospitable draw for a Democratic successor, and doesn’t even include Murphy’s home base of Winter Park. It has greater than a Trump +5 lean, when the baseline was a Biden +10. The district goes from 0.81 Convex Hull to 0.83. Right now, the only candidates raising money in the district are Republicans. Top fundraiser Brady Duke’s Oviedo home sits in the district, but Cory Mills’ Winter Park home does not. Anthony Sabatini, of Howey-in-the-Hills and Kevin McGovern, of Celebration, never did live in the district. Lake Monroe’s Scott Sturgill, Longwood’s Russell Roberts, and Lake Mary’s Erika Bensen reside inside the lines.
Florida’s 8th Congressional District
Presumed incumbent: U.S. Rep, Bill Posey
2020 Presidential Election: Trump 58.12%, Biden 40.52%
In Posey’s CD 8, there’s very little change from the baseline district. Covering the Space Coast, it just dumps part of Orange County around Bithlo. It’s a Trump +18 seat and a super safe GOP hold. JoAnne Terry, the only Democrat to raise more than $10,000 to challenge Posey, lives in Satellite Beach and isn’t much impacted by the new lines, nor are less-financed Democrats Danelle Dodge, of Cape Canaveral, or Ena Grayson (wife to former U.S. Rep. Alan Grayson), of Indialantic.
Florida’s 9th Congressional District
Presumed incumbent: U.S. Rep. Darren Soto
2020 Presidential Election: Biden 58.1%, Trump 40.71%
That’s right, it takes until CD 9 to find a district where Biden won the 2020 election, and Democrats have a better than even chance of winning the seat in a GOP-friendly midterm. The map does respect Soto’s district in last decade became a minority seat, with just over 50% of the voting age population identifying as Hispanic. Soto’s district before redistricting had grown to be Florida’s most populous jurisdiction, so it becomes significantly smaller geographically. It boasts about the same compactness scores, except in the Reock measurement, which goes from 0.63 on the baseline down to 0.49. Soto hold the advantage in Biden +17 seat. Orlando Republican Scotty Moore, the only Republican in the race with more than $100,000, lives in CD 10 under the new lines. Davenport Republicans William Olson and Jose Castillo wind up in CD 18. That makes Marlin Anthony, with just north of $29,000, the best funded challenger living in the district.
Florida’s 10th Congressional District
Presumed incumbent: None
2020 Presidential Election: Biden 65.11%, Trump 33.45%
Here’s one of the moves that really deserves more attention. CD 10, currently U.S. Rep. Val Demings’ district, gets sliced apart. The DeSantis map leaves a heavily Democratic seat but not a Black-performing one, with Black percentage dropping to 26%. Yes, it’s only a 26.7% Black seat now, but more than 40% of the Democratic voting electorate consistently has been Black. The Florida House and Senate disagreed whether this was a minority protected seat but drew it with an increased percentage of Black voters in the map DeSantis vetoed. Demings is running for U.S. Senate, leaving the seat open. The map brings bad news for state Sen. Randolph Bracy, an Ocoee Democrat whose legislative district largely gets cut out. That also cuts Ocoee Democrat Terence Gray from the turf. That’s conversely good for top fundraiser Maxwell Alejandro Frost of Orlando. Orlando Democrat Natalie Jackson also remains.
Florida’s 11th Congressional District
Presumed incumbent: U.S. Rep. Dan Webster
2020 Presidential Election: Trump 54.94%, Biden 44.08%
The new makeup of CD 11 offers a glimpse at how this map also messes with GOP incumbents. Webster, a Clermont Republican, lives in this Lake County-heavy seat. But he loses a northern constituency as the map cuts up The Villages. Leaving South Lake intact, it surely looks attractive for Sabatini, of Howey, to jump over if he wants to challenge an incumbent. It also grabs a large swath of CD 15 that’s now represented by U.S. Rep. Scott Franklin. Top fundraiser Laura Loomer has yet to update her South Florida address. It seems a safe presumption the seat, nearly a Trump +11 seat, remains in Republican hands in November.
Florida’s 12th Congressional District
Presumed incumbent: U.S. Rep. Gus Bilirakis
2020 Presidential Election: Trump 63.76%, Biden 35.05%
Then next door, the draw on CD 12 pushes Bilirakis, a Palm Harbor Republican, out of Pinellas County, a community he or his father Mike Bilirakis have represented in Congress for decades. But it puts him in one of Florida’s safest Republican districts. The new CD 12 runs up the Gulf Coast to Citrus County. It’s almost a Trump +18 district, and it scores more compact than the baseline district Bilirakis represents now. Democrats Bill VanHorn and Kimberly Walker are both based in Pasco County, which remains at the core of the district, but whoever wins the nomination has an uphill battle. Clearwater Republican Michael Carnevale, meanwhile, gets left behind in Pinellas and becomes a constituent of CD 13.
Florida’s 13th Congressional District
Presumed incumbent: None
2020 Presidential Election: Trump 52.74%, Biden 45.98%
Party like it’s 2012? This makes a big change to CD 13, represented now by St. Petersburg Democrat Charlie Crist, who will run for Governor this year instead of seeking another term. DeSantis’ map turns this from a Biden +4 district to one Trump carried by seven percentage points. That was done by shedding downtown and extending the district boundaries north to the Pinellas-Pasco county line. It’s a change reminiscent to the map implemented by the Legislature in 2012 but tossed in 2015, paving the way for Crist to win office as a Democrat for the first time by beating incumbent Republican David Jolly. Of course, Jolly went on to become a detractor from Republicans like Trump and DeSantis, so don’t expect him back. This more seems a gift to Anna Paulina Luna, the Republican money-leader who lost to Crist in 2020, or to other Republican candidates like Amanda Makki, Kevin Hayslett, Audrey Hensen or Christine Quinn if they win. Meanwhile, Democratic money-leader Ben Diamond just had his current state House district completely drawn out of the seat. He’s still running right now, but Democrats Eric Lynn and Michele Rayner just had chances at the nod improve even as the general election just got much tougher.
Florida’s 14th Congressional District
Presumed incumbent: U.S. Rep. Kathy Castor
2020 Presidential Election: Biden 58.8%, Trump 39.72%
Most of the gains in that Pinellas seat come thanks to the new CD 14. Tampa Democrat Castor’s seat returns into a Bay-crossing district very much like one tossed out of courts a couple years back. A Biden +9 seat, this certainly is safe for Dems, and presuming Lynn doesn’t also decide to jump the bay and run here, it’s Castor’s to lose. The only other Democrat filed, Christoper Bradley, does remain a resident of the district. The seat notably just became more diverse, with a voting age population that’s 26% and 29% Black, which arguably makes it a coalition district. It’s also much less winnable for a number of Republicans who saw the Legislature’s map making the seat a much more conservative one. Tampa Republican Jay Collins had already raised three quarters of a million to run. Wesley Chapel Republican James Judge actually lands in CD 12, and is closer to another GOP-leaning Republican seat than this downtown-to-downtown blue zone now.
Florida’s 15th Congressional District
Presumed incumbent: None
2020 Presidential Election: Trump 50.86%, Biden 47.74%
Whether on any of the Legislature’s maps or on DeSantis’ map, CD 15 was always arguably becoming Florida’s ‘new’ seat, the 28th district picked up thanks to growth reflected in the 2020 Census. Cartography for the most part plugged the northeast Hillsborough County population into the district. The Governor’s map has it covering a lot of Pasco and west Polk as well — and crafts it into being a Trump +3 seat. Now, no one should get carried away. That’s still very competitive, although probably enough to go GOP if ’22 remains as red a cycle as expected. And to date, there’s more serious GOP contenders running here. Former U.S. Rep. Dennis Ross said three quarters of his constituency before he retired in 2018 lives in the new district. Meanwhile, Republican state Rep. Jackie Toledo’s current district mostly falls in CD 14. But a lack of overlap isn’t stopping speculation state Rep. Mike Beltran may run here. Democrat Eddie Geller of Mango remains the one Democrat after jumping in early and hoping for the best (and not really getting it when all was said and done). Of note, speculation right now must account for the chance U.S. Rep. Scott Franklin decides he should run here.
Florida’s 16th Congressional District
Presumed incumbent: U.S. Rep. Vern Buchanan
2020 Presidential Election: Trump 53.81%, Biden 44.95%
Welcome to Southwest Florida. Or maybe south Tampa Bay? The DeSantis map shifts CD 16 further north, leaving Sarasota County behind and cementing Manatee County as the heart of the seat. While Buchanan spent weeks signaling uncertainty about running here or in his home county of Sarasota. About 60% of his current constituency lives here. He announced the day the map passed the Legislature that he will run here. This sheds all of Sarasota County, stretches north to State Road 60 in Brandon, and leaves this district a Trump +9 seat with Polsby-Popper and Reock scores of 0.45 each. Of note, Buchanan primary challenger Martin Hyde still has a federal election account open and has signaled he may not be done with the race, but he does live in Sarasota County. Democrat Jan Schneider lives in the district but has raised less than $1,000.
Florida’s 17th Congressional District
Presumed incumbent: U.S. Rep. Greg Steube
2020 Presidential Election: Trump 57.49%, Biden 41.59%
More coastal but still deep red, Sarasota County becomes whole again in DeSantis’ version of CD 17. Despite the city of Sarasota’s blue hue, this seat reddens by covering all of Charlotte County and parts of Lee County including Lehigh Acres. Ultimately, the map creates a Trump +16 district. Steube, a Sarasota Republican, must leave the Heartland behind but says he’s running in this district, where he has lived since serving the region in the state Senate. To date, no one filed against Steube in the 2022 election cycle raised a dime. A couple, Dan Lambert and Andrea Kale, do live in the newly drawn seat but have a challenge ahead. Former opponent Allen Ellison, now a U.S. Senate candidate, was drawn out of the seat.
Florida’s 18th Congressional District
Presumed incumbent: U.S. Rep. Scott Franklin
2020 Presidential Election: Trump 60.81%, Biden 38.04%
That’s right. Franklin, a Lakeland Republican, appears to be the expected incumbent running in the Florida Heartland. The enormous draw for CD 18, already an expansive rural district, connects Lakeland to Hendry County. The greatest population center for the seat shifts away from the Southwest Florida coast and instead goes toward the greater Lakeland area. That means he can likely rest on Polk County support. It reconfigures the Heartland seat away from the Gulf Coast, a couple years after the courts reoriented the seat away from the West Coast. Of note, while Winter Haven Republican Demetries Grimes is still filed for CD 15, he lives deep in this district and will have to decide if he spends his money challenging a freshman incumbent in a primary. Then again, if Franklin tries to clear the crowded CD 15 field, this is an open seat.
Florida’s 19th Congressional District
Presumed incumbent: U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds
2020 Presidential Election: Trump 60.13%, Biden 39.12%
Meanwhile, CD 19 looks, well, like it pretty much like it does today. Unlike a prior map from the Governor’s team, this means Donalds, a Naples Republican, pretty much keeps his constituency. Of note, about here is where you see the Governor hew very closely to the Legislature’s plans for South Florida. The Legislature’s map in this part of Florida sought little disruption of lines. For population, the seat withdraws to the Fort Myers city limits in the northeast and sheds part of Lehigh Acres and Naples Manor. So far, former Democratic opponent Cindy Lyn Banyai remains the only candidate raising money to challenge Donalds, and this map likely won’t change things for her or draw other opposition.
Florida’s 20th Congressional District
Presumed incumbent: U.S. Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick
2020 Presidential Election: Biden 75.76%, Trump 23.45%
Didn’t DeSantis say he had a problem with racial gerrymanders? Well, as the process played out, it became clear he would leave be seats where a true majority of the seat were racial or ethnic minorities, and DeSantis took up the Legislature’s line for this and many seats. Blacks make up 50.11% of the voting age population here. CD 20 again looks remarkably the same as its configuration today, trading a few votes in Pembroke Pines for ones in Plantation. It’s the bluest seat on the map at a whopping Biden +52. It’s also the least compact in Florida now, with a Polsby-Popper score of 0.28. Cherfilus-McCormick, a Miramar Democrat elected in a Special Election this year, won a Democratic primary here over Dale Holness by a handful of votes, and he’s running again. Drew Montez-Clark, a Naples Republican, has also filed for the seat.
Florida’s 21st Congressional District
Presumed incumbent: U.S. Rep. Brian Mast
2020 Presidential Election: Trump 54.28%, Biden 44.88%
Mast, a Stuart Republican, remains one of DeSantis’ closest allies in Congress. Other than renumbering to CD 21, this seat looks almost exactly like Mast’s district does today. It’s also almost a Trump +10 district. Dems sometimes try to play here but it never works out. That said, Democrat Corinna Balderramos Robinson’s candidacy won’t be derailed by this map either. Republican opponents Melissa Martz and Leonard Serratore didn’t live in Mast’s district when they filed against him on the old map, and they don’t now. Both list addresses just to the south of the district. While there’s some wiggle on the southern border, it’s all just population adjustments.
Florida’s 22nd Congressional District
Presumed incumbent: U.S. Rep. Lois Frankel
2020 Presidential Election: Biden 58.39%, Trump 40.81%
Despite being home to Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate, Palm Beach-based CD 22 on the map remains heavily Democratic. Almost a Biden +18 seat, this district again creates little change in the constituency for Democratic incumbent Frankel, a former West Palm Beach Mayor. It also won’t impact Republican opponents including the GOP money leader Jeffrey Buongiorna, of Gulf Stream. Rod Dorilas, of Wellington; Daniel Franzese and Martiun Marks, both of Palm Beach; and Deborah Adaimy, of West Palm Beach, shouldn’t be displaced by the map either.
Florida’s 23rd Congressional District
Presumed incumbent: None
2020 Presidential Election: Biden 56.18%, Trump 43.05%
Both the Legislature and the Governor toyed along the way with returning to side-by-side seats but decided in the end to stack Frankel’s seat north of U.S. Rep. Ted Deutch’s district. This is now numbered as CD 23. Deutch is retiring, but this is a safe Biden +13 seat, so it should hold blue even in a tough cycle for Democrats. The new lines bring Mission Bay into CD 23 as some terrain south of 20th Street in Fort Lauderdale changes seats. The Coral Springs home of Broward County Commissioner Jared Moskowitz, the money leader to succeed Deutch, remains in the district. So does Fort Lauderdale City Commissioner Ben Sorensen. On the Republican side, the campaign address of Darlene Swaffar in Deerfield Beach technically now falls in CD 20, but most of Deerfield Beach is in CD 23. Both Republican James Pruden, of Coconut Creek, and Steven Chess, of Fort Lauderdale, are unaffected.
Florida’s 24th Congressional District
Presumed incumbent: U.S. Rep. Frederica Wilson
2020 Presidential Election: Biden 74.14%, Trump 25.13%
The numbers jump south of the map and leave the district for Wilson, a Hollywood Democrat, as CD 24. It’s actually a pretty compact seat, with a 0.9 Convex Hull score, somewhat unusual for a Black-performing seat — maybe how it survived all iterations of the DeSantis maps. The voting age population here is 42% Black and 38.5% Hispanic, so it’s a solid minority seat. It’s also Biden +49 district so a safe bet for Democrats in any year. Lavern Spicer, the Republican in the race, lives firmly in the district under the old and new lines. The seat expands to grab coastal barrier islands in Sunny Isles Beach and Miami Beach. Do does Kevin Harris of Miami Gardens, a primary challenger to Wilson.
Florida’s 25th Congressional District
Presumed incumbent: U.S. Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz
2020 Presidential Election: Biden 74.14%, Trump 25.13%
Jumping briefly north, the plan for CD 25 looks like a slight southern shift for Wasserman Schultz’s baseline district. The Biden +20 seat is 42% Hispanic and 17.5% Black. That’s the highest minority percentage for a Florida district with a White member (though the state didn’t break out Jewish numbers, a major constituent of this long-serving Jewish member). The line shift resulted in the home of Plantation Republican Carla Spalding — who has out-raised Wasserman Schultz — lying blocks outside the district in CD 20. That doesn’t preclude a run, nor does it change the fact the biggest barrier for a Republican is the partisan make-up of the district.
Florida’s 26th Congressional District
Presumed incumbent: U.S. Rep. Mario Díaz-Balart
2020 Presidential Election: Trump 58.77%, Biden 40.54%
This map gets rid of the Tally-to-Jax district but keeps the Naples-to-Hialeah district, represented now by GOP incumbent Díaz-Balart. A heavily Cubano district with a voting age population that’s 73% Hispanic population, it’s a safe GOP Trump +18 seat on the map. Unlike the Legislature’s draw, the DeSantis map sheds Hendry County from this district but leaves much of the “stairway to Immokalee” connecting Southwest Florida communities on the opposite side of Alligator Alley from Hialeah. Democrat Christine Olivo actually lives in CD 25 under this map, but Democrat Adam Gentle’s Doral home is in CD 26.
Florida’s 27th Congressional District
Presumed incumbent: U.S. Rep. María Elvira Salazar
2020 Presidential Election: Trump 49.76%, Biden 49.49%
The DeSantis map of CD 27 looks like a rounder version of Salazar’s current seat. That gives it much higher compact scores all around. It also makes this very swingy seat a little safer for the GOP, moving it from Biden +4 to Trump +0.3. That’s surely good news for the incumbent but this remains the most closely divided congressional district in the state of Florida. It’s a 74% Hispanic seat, the highest percentage for the voting age population anywhere in the state. Democrat Janelle Perez, the top Democrat in race, remains firmly in bounds as well.
Florida’s 28th Congressional District
Presumed incumbent: U.S. Rep. Carlos Giménez
2020 Presidential Election: Trump 52.79%, Biden 46.45%
Finally, Giménez’s seat gets the highest number under the DeSantis map. CD 28 continues to include much of Miami-Dade and the Keys. It’s a 73% Hispanic seat, like all three GOP-held South Florida seats now. It keeps Giménez in around a Trump +7 district. Both Republicans filed against Giménez, Jeremiah Schaffer of Sugarloaf and Ruth Ann Swanson of Miami, are still filed in CD 16 with the FEC, but live in CD 28 on the map. While the incumbent got here by knocking off a Democratic incumbent in Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, no Democrat has jumped in the race against him this year.
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George is Digismak’s reported cum editor with 13 years of experience in Journalism