Tunisians vote this Monday a referendum, for the first time in its history, to approve or reject a new Constitution which, if consolidated, would give more powers to the president Kais Saiedwhich a year ago dissolved Parliament, established the curfew Y full powers were attributed.
The polling stations have opened their doors at 5:00 a.m. so that the 9.2 million registered voters can exercise their electoral right until nine o’clock at night. In this referendum, which does not require a minimum number of voters, the “yes” to the new Constitution is favored because the majority of the opposition has urged its ranks not to participate.
The draft new constitution establishes a ultra-presidential regime in rupture with the more parliamentary system established in 2014 after the triumph of the carnation revolution, to which Saied attributes the crisis that Tunisia is currently experiencing. The country of 12 million inhabitants has spent a year in a deep political crisis after Saied, elected by a large majority in 2019, granted himself full powers on July 25, 2021. “A coup”according to the opposition, and an “excessive concentration of power” for human rights organizations.
The opposition, especially the Islamist-inspired party Ennahdhahas called for a boycott of the referendum, considering it a “illegal process”. The main union, UGTT, has not given a voting slogan. “The great unknown is whether the participation will be low or very low, because a lot of people don’t know neither what nor why do you vote”the researcher Youssef Cherif explained to AFP.
The “yes” supporters will vote “because they like the president or because they hate those who have ruled since (the Revolution of) 2011” Ennahdha and his allies, “but they are only a few hundred thousand”, according to Cherif.
risk of dictatorship
The latest version of the text, written by Saied himselfis “light years from secular and democratic project“that the commission in charge of its elaboration proposed, explained Hamadi Redisi, political scientist According to him, “unlike the 2014 Constitution, here there is no debate or public deliberation of the project.”
Sadok Belaidthe jurist in charge of the commission in charge of drawing up the new Constitution, took distances with the final text, since, in his opinion, it is likely “to open the way to a dictatorial regime”.
The establishment of an ultra-presidential regime would break with the parliamentary system created after the fall of dictator Ben Ali in 2011, and which made Tunisia the only democracy that emerged from the revolts of the Arab Springaccording to analysts.
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Tunisia may evolve into “competitive authoritarianism” like Turkey or Russia, “with elections” but “no true democracy”, although “it will never be like China or Egypt”, Redissi has considered. A present but not immediate risk, according to some analysts. “The legal framework is there. If you look at the dismantling of the institutions that guarantee freedom and democracy, the siege is tightened,” he explained. Isabelle Werenfelsresearcher at the German SWP institute.
After the referendum, the country’s main problem will be economy in crisiswith a runaway unemployment rate (40% among young people), inflation growing because of the war in Ukraine and the 4 million poor what is in the country.
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Eddie is an Australian news reporter with over 9 years in the industry and has published on Forbes and tech crunch.