Wednesday, November 30

UNC vs. Kansas: Betting trends for March Madness 2022 national championship

Bettors have a plethora of options for betting the national championship game, but Action Network PRO systems suggest some lines could be more meaningful.

These PRO systems – which look to evaluate lines by applying situational handicaps and historical performances under strict sets of guidelines – say there’s a side and total with historical value tonight.

So before placing your bets and enjoying the championship game, consider these systems as a way of making more informed wagers.

System #1 – Neutral Court Unders (55 percent historical win rate, 6 percent ROI)

Essentially, this system theorizes that teams playing on a neutral floor will struggle to score given the change in environment.

However, it targets total numbers that are higher on average. Specifically, the closing total needs to fall between 145 and 180 points in order to satisfy one of the five factors that go into this system.

As for the other four factors, most are quite simple. The first two requirements are that the game be played in November through April and that the game occurs on a neutral floor. Further, the third requirement is that we’re betting on the under.

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The fifth and final test for the system to apply is the betting percentage associated with the total. In order to meet that criterion, the over/under percentage needs to fall between 0 and 50 percent. Per the Action Network PRO Report, the under has received 37 percent of bets while also receiving 52 percent of the total handle.

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Since March 1, this system is 25-21, including a 3-1 run in the last four games. Based on this system, bettors should look to back the Total Under 152.5 Points in tonight’s championship game.

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System #2 – NCAA Tournament Slow-Paced Underdogs (58 percent historical win rate, 13 percent ROI)

This system’s theory is that slower-paced teams should be able to keep games closer than a team that likes to push the tempo.

In order for the system to apply, four factors need to be satisfied. Two are quite simple: the game needs to be a postseason contest AND is limited to the NCAA Tournament only. As for the other two factors, there’s more specificity.

The third factor is that a team’s pace rating needs to be less than or equal to 72.2. Additionally, we’re not just talking about ANY underdog for this system. The system will only apply to teams that satisfy the aforementioned criterion and are underdogs of between one and four-and-a-half points.

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All those factors suggest North Carolina (+4) is showing good value as a side on Monday night.

It is worth noting that this system hasn’t performed well this tournament. Entering Monday’s tilt, the system is 11-16 overall. However, this system has applied to the Tar Heels two times previously and it has cashed in both those games.

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