Friday, March 29

We are heading towards a perpetual heat wave: how a DANA “stuck” in the Atlantic threatens a record summer


The heat wave continues to cause us headaches in the Iberian Peninsula. With four communities on alert for extreme risk caused by high temperatures, many of us are waiting for the predictions for the coming days, and they bring good and bad news. The good news is that weather conditions will improve next week. The bad news is that it will be of little use.


The good news.
The current heat wave is caused by a mass of warm air trapped between two low pressure zones, one over the Atlantic, off the coast of Portugal, the other over the Balkans. The Atlantic DANA has remained in place this week, but it appears that it will soon begin to move northeast, which should serve to dissipate the mass of warm air that is now hitting the peninsula. We may not be so lucky.

This is how the spectacular heat maps for cities and seas that we are seeing so much these days are created

New cycle.
Before these predictions have been confirmed by time, the alarms have gone off again. The update of the medium-term forecasts carried out by the specialized European center ECMWF shows the appearance of a new Atlantic depression that will reach the place where its predecessor is now.

This means that we expect to chain two extreme atmospheric events, although it is still early to be sure what the consequences of the second will be (although the predictions put the thermometers again above 32 degrees in most of the peninsula, with areas of again over 40.

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The forecasts do not see a substantial cooling between DANA-dorsal episodes, as occurred in the previous heat wave. This could imply that, far from dissipating, the heat wave would continue between the first and second cycles.

And then?
The latest forecast from the ECMWF covers ten days, until midnight on Saturday 23 July. We will have to wait for the body to present the next update of the data, but a new DANA-dorsal situation could lengthen this heat wave sine die.

Looking at the record.
Although it seems like months, we are only five days into this heat wave episode, which will extend to at least eight if short-term predictions hold true, but could easily reach 15 if the medium trend continues.

These figures place us not far from the longest heat wave recorded in Spain by duration: 26 days between June 27 and July 22, 2015. The worst day of the wave was reached on July 6, in which two meteorological stations in the province of Córdoba reached 45.2 degrees. 2015 was also the year with the most days under heat waves, 29.

Survive the heat.
These days it is especially important to be cautious with the heat, especially among the youngest and the oldest, who are the most vulnerable to this threat. Avoiding the street during the hottest hours of the day, seeking shade and staying well hydrated are the basic precautions to take.

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Resting well is especially difficult these days, but we have tricks on hand to help us. It is also a good idea to cool our house efficiently, using the lowest possible energy consumption, although this can be especially difficult with night temperatures that are also high.

Image | Clara Margais/AP



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