(CNN) — It’s Friday and the 2020 U.S. presidential election is four days away.
Votes already cast: more than 80 million.
There’s an interesting new tone from President Donald Trump on face masks: CNN’s Maegan Vazquez reported that after arguing that “closures” to prevent the spread of the coronavirus are not working, Trump told attendees at his rally in Tampa, Florida: «We know the disease. We physically distance ourselves. We do all the things that have to be done.
If you get close, wear a mask. ‘Oh, it’s controversial.’ It is not controversial to me. You come closer, you put on a mask. Physical distance, physical distance, ”Trump told the audience.
The problem: Vázquez notes that the audience to which Trump delivered this message were mostly not wearing masks. They were so tightly packed that several people required medical attention due to the heat and a nearby fire truck had to refresh supporters. Staff were also seen without masks.
How did Trump’s favorite doctor help influence Florida? It’s not news that infectious disease experts have been replaced by Scott Atlas, the Stanford neurologist (not an infectious disease physician) whom the president saw on Fox News and liked.
But this report by CNN’s John Avlon and Michael Warren shows how Atlas’ anti-orthodoxy guidance went from Fox to the White House and then leaked to states with Trump-supporting governors, such as Florida.
‘Excess Deaths’ Data May Reveal Actual Number of Covid Deaths
CNN has tracked more than 228,000 deaths attributed to COVID-19. But recent CDC data suggests a much higher rate of “excess deaths” in the United States from January to October. In addition to direct deaths from covid, 100,000 more Americans died than normal. A group of senators has asked the CDC and HHS to explain how they are addressing the increase.
We are in the part of this election where local events can influence national elections. Be on the lookout for weather, covid spikes and race riots.
Will the elections affect the riots in Philadelphia?
It looks like the most dynamic state of 2020 right now. Trump needs at least one Rust Belt state that defected from the Democrats in 2016 to stay with him in 2020 and is within easy reach in Pennsylvania.
Now, the murder of Walter Wallace, a black man suffering from mental health problems who was advancing on the police with a knife, has the state’s largest urban center and the Democratic stronghold on the edge. The protests have turned into looting.
Trump has maintained his criticism of Democratic-led cities, while former Vice President Joe Biden has tried to balance outrage over the murder of a black man by police while disapproving of looting.
The damage of hurricane Zeta
The arrival of Hurricane Zeta left millions of people without electricity in the southeast of the country. For this reason, some early voting was stopped. We will monitor the effect this could have on voters. Louisiana may have to open alternative voting sites.
Sleeping with the enemy
Red or blue, Trump or Biden, and often men and women. Trump is likely to do better with men and Biden will do better with women.
So it is mathematically simple (and perhaps some opposites will attract) that households will be divided by this choice.
Take a look at this video about “Wives of the Deplorable”, a private Facebook group started by left-wing women married to right-wing men and how they fought over garden signs, considered divorce, and learned to live together. This is, dare I say it in this overloaded and divisive moment, something sweet.
Prediction models run possible scenarios
Biden wins in most of these scenarios. There are several prediction models, from FiveThirtyEight and The Economist, among others, that suggest that Biden is much more likely to win than Trump.
CNN’s Oliver Darcy spoke to the data journalists behind them to ask why they are better than they were in 2016, when they also said a Trump defeat was more likely (though less likely than now).
Here’s what Nate Silver told Darcy about this year’s forecasting models: “We’re not taking chances here. We are just stating the obvious. Biden is quite ahead in the polls and the candidate who is ahead in the polls by a margin like he usually wins.
House and Senate seats move toward Democrats
It’s not just the presidential map that gets tougher for Republicans.
CNN uses the House and Senate ratings from Inside Elections, which is led by CNN contributor Nathan L. Gonzalez.
What’s Changed: According to the CNN report, Democrats are projected to get a net gain of 14 to 20 House seats and a net gain of four to six Senate seats, which would be enough to change the House.
Key details: Two US Senate races in Georgia are getting tougher for Republicans, but both could end in a runoff in December.
More suburban House seats are leaning toward Republicans and toward Democrats.
Sen. Kelly Loeffler, the Republican running for the seat she was appointed to, told reporters she was unaware of the infamous Trump Access Hollywood tape. Then CNN’s Manu Raju explained it to him.
Sen. Susan Collins, a rare moderate Republican, struggled to answer a question about systematic bias in Maine, a predominantly white state but with a large Somali community.
Sen. Martha McSally, the Republican who ran a race in Arizona in 2016 and is now running for election to the seat to which she was later named, was ushered on stage by Trump during a rally and given a minute to speak because She said in front of everyone, “They don’t want to hear this”: Things are getting more interesting in battle states.
Adam Levy of CNN’s political unit has been closely following early voting in key states, with information that CNN gets from the Catalist firm, a data firm that has Democrats, thematic organizations and academics as a clientele. Read the full story here (in English).
Republicans reduce Democrats’ lead
Republicans are beginning to narrow the Democratic lead in pre-Election Day voting in four key states on the battlefield, where more than 12 million votes have already been cast.
Florida: Trump won by more than 1 point in 2016
A week ago, Democrats had a 9 percentage point lead on the ballots cast. Now it’s 4 percentage points.
North Carolina – Trump won by more than 3 points in 2016
Democrats had a 12-point advantage over Republican ballots cast last week. Now it’s 8 points.
Iowa – Trump won by more than 9 points in 2016
Democrats hold a 17-point lead over Republicans in early voting, but that lead has narrowed by four points this week. Democrats also had an advantage in the pre-vote in 2016.
Nevada – Clinton won by 2 points in 2016
Last week, Democrats led Republicans by 12 points. Now, 42% of the votes cast by Democrats is now only seven points higher than 35% by Republicans.
One key event to remember: Republicans have indicated that they are more likely to vote on Election Day, so there is an asterisk for this data. We don’t know what will happen next week.
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