Saturday, May 15

“We would have to do very badly to have it”


Adolfo García-Sastre: "We would have to do very badly to have a fourth wave"

Adolfo García-Sastre: “We would have to do very badly to have a fourth wave”

Health authorities, as well as society in general, are concerned about a possible fourth wave of the coronavirus in Spain. And it is that, even though the data of infections by covid-19 have improved in recent weeks, restrictions they have become more flexible in a motto way due to the fear of a rebound in infections that will derail the progress made.

The prestigious immunologist Margarita del Val dated the arrival of the fourth wave: at the end of this month of March and pointed out that it would be as serious as the third one we passed after Christmas. She has not been the only scientist who has ruled on this fact. Different professionals have pointed to the lifting of mobility limitations and the expansion of the british strain as reasons for the next explosion of positives.

However, the renowned Spanish virologist and director of the Institute for Global Health and Emerging Pathogens at Mount Sinai Hospital in New York, Adolfo Garcia-Tailor has stated about a new wave of covid-19 that “We’d have to get it really bad for there to be a fourth wave“. This affirmation has been made in an interview granted to the Cope chain.

“If we do not have all the measures in place for a fourth wave to occur, it can happen, but I think it is possible to avoid a fourth wave for different reasons”, García-Sastre refers specifically to the tools that can prevent it: vaccines. , seeing the light at the end of the tunnel in this pandemic will depend “on the rush we can give ourselves in acquire vaccines and administer them“. The key lies, in the opinion of the Burgos virologist, in having enough people vaccinated.” It is possible to avoid the fourth wave when all risk groups“.

This does not mean that hospitalizations will not occur but that they would be reduced and, of course, much more among the population at risk.

Vaccine resistant strains

Asked about the strains that show resistance to covid-19 vaccines, García Sastre points out that there are studies, including one carried out at Mount-Sinai, that show that there are variants of SARS-CoV-2 that are neutralized “a little less” by the antibodies generated by the vaccine, but are still effective. . “It falls below the 95% efficacy shown by some of the antidotes, but even with that data it will be avoided the emergency situations that we are experiencing now“.

With regard to the strains that show resistance to the vaccine, the virologist points to the South African and Brazilian ones, although he emphasizes that with the vaccine the pandemic dimension of the coronavirus will be cut and it will become a “more manageable” situation, although “there would be cases of covid but not so urgent“.

When asked about whether vaccination will be necessary each year, García-Sastre comments that it may not be necessary, “maybe every 3 or 4 but we don’t know yet“, but it is encouraging that after this massive vaccination the situation will be easier to deal with for the health system and for society in general.

About anticovid measures

The director of Mount Sinai Institute for Global Health and Emerging Pathogens points out that the restrictions to avoid coronavirus infections depend on the number of infections. “Once the risk groups are vaccinated, the cases will decrease” but he warns that it is necessary to avoid that the positives are triggered among non-risk people because hospitalizations can be increased again: if they increase “it will be necessary to continue applying them.”

The latest balance of coronavirus cases, in graphs

Deaths from coronavirus in Spain

Diagnosed cases of coronavirus in Spain since the epidemic began

Coronavirus incidence rate by Autonomous Communities in the last 14 days per 100,000 inhabitants


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