Thursday, February 22

What if Bolsonaro beats Lula?

“I don’t have to be a president more to the left, to the right or to the center, I have to be president, know the reality and what has to be done,” he told him. Luiz Inacio Lula Da Silva to the community of youtubers and independent journalists this Tuesday. But what if it wasn’t on January 1, 2023? The re-election from Jair Bolsonaro in the October elections it has ceased to be a very remote hypothesis in Brazil. That possibility causes some shaking chills five months and a few days before the first round.

Lula will formally announce his candidacy as a presidential candidate on May 7, a week after the carnivals. The latest FSB Pesquisa survey known in Brazil favors him with a intention to vote of 41%, against 32% of the retired captain. But Bolsonaro reduced his distance from the former president to nine points. An earlier poll gave the leader of the Workers’ Party (PT) a lead of 14 percentage points. According to the FSB, for now Lula would defeat Bolsonaro in the second round on October 30 by a difference of 15 points (52% to 37%). Those numbers do not generate, however, the necessary tranquility in the PT. Political analysts do not rule out that the candidacy of the retired captain will grow more, among other reasons because there is no other candidate to prevent the Polarization with Lula. the former judge sergio moro got out of the race and the former governor of the state of São Paulo, Joao Doriabarely harvests 2% of the adhesions. Cyrus Gomes Nor does it arouse enthusiasm.

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The FSB survey, commissioned by the investment bank BTG Pactual, also shows that Lula’s decision to lead conservative Geraldo Alckmin as vice president does not have an impact on voting intentions for the time being. With Alckmin on his ticket, a former governor of São Paulo and former rival of Lula in the 2006 elections, the former head of state has tried to issue a sign to political center. The PT candidate is the first to take seriously these developments in the polls. The first thing he did days ago is fire your marketing manager, Augusto Fonseca. Brazilian media assured that his departure was due to the scant effect of Lula’s first television advertisements. At this time, the head of Communication, Franklin Martins, would also be on the brink of the precipice.

Far right offensive

Bolsonaromeanwhile, seems immune to its own mistakes or the scandals that splash it His responsibility in pandemic, which caused more than 620,000 deaths, has had no political or judicial consequences. The president has just not only claimed responsibility for the 1964 coup d’état. He has also assured that the then military chief Eduardo Villas Boas participated in the dismissal of Dilma Rousseff in 2016. No investigation has been opened. The Supreme Court (STF) has just given Bolsonaro 10 days to explain the pardon it granted to the former police officer and far-right deputy, Daniel Silveira, after he was sentenced to almost nine years in prison for inciting anti-democratic actions and threaten judges. At the same time, the case of corruption that forced the Minister of Education, the evangelical pastor Milton Ribeiro, to abandon the portfolio for having favored with public money Pentecostal churches allied with Bolsonarism. Ribeiro was on the news again on Monday: before taking a flight from Brasilia to Sao Paulo, he accidentally fired the gun he was carrying in his briefcase, slightly injuring a woman. He still hasn’t explained what a pastor does with a gun in an airport.

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The fake news as an electoral weapon

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The Bolsonarism more radical has found in this context two reasons to be enthusiastic. On the one hand, the far-right government seeks to increase the social benefits of its “Aid for Brazil” plan, which is currently 75 euros and benefits the most disadvantaged social sectors. Another episode sparks confidence in being able to reverse the electoral trend: The purchase of Twitter by tycoon Elon Musk. Federal deputy Eduardo Bolsonaro predicted an era of freedom in the social network that had suspended the account of his father and other agitators. The president is investigated by the Supreme Court due to the dissemination of false news related to covid-19 and the electoral system. youtube and facebook they have in turn deleted messages and videos of the retired captain. When he started using Telegram, justice also took action on the matter.

After the operation related to Twitter became known, the number of followers of the members of the Bolsonaro clan has grown by 300%. When there is little left for the electoral race to be launched, Congress discusses a project that increases the penalties for the spread of false news. Bolsonaro has already shown his determination to challenge it.

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