California voters appeared to give a collective shrug to Tuesday’s primary election with a statewide turnout trending toward a record low and the only drama at the top of the ticket focused on who will finish a distant second to incumbent Gov. Gavin Newsom, less than a year after he soundly defeated a recall effort.
Republican state Sen. Brian Dahle, a farmer from the state’s rural northeast, beat out two dozen others for the right to face Newsom in November in what’s likely to be a steep uphill battle to unseat the state’s most powerful Democrat.
“The governor won this race last September,” said Thad Kousser, a political science professor at UC-San Diego, noting Newsom’s decisive win in the recall.
As expected, early returns also showed Democrats handily leading races for the US Senate and other statewide offices. US Sen. Alex Padilla led Republican Mark Meuser and 21 other challengers. California Attorney General Rob Bonta led Republicans Nathan Hochman and Eric Early, and Anne Marie Schubert, the Sacramento District Attorney who ran with no party preference.
Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara was fending off challenges from fellow Democrats Mark Levine, Vinson Allen and Jay Jackson and Republicans Greg Conlon and Robert Howell.
And in the open race for state Controller, Republican Lanhee Chen was making a strong showing as potentially the GOP’s most viable statewide candidate since 2006. He led the field of four Democrats and a Green Party candidate in early returns.
Tuesday’s most closely watched races were reserved for local battles in the Bay Area. In San Jose, Santa Clara County Supervisor Cindy Chavez and San Jose Councilmember Matt Mahan were leading the field of seven vying for the chance to replace termed-out Mayor Sam Liccardo.
In San Francisco, voters recalled progressive District Attorney Chesa Boudin, who had won the office in 2019 campaigning against cash bail and favoring rehabilitation over incarceration.
And on the Peninsula, California Assembly Speaker Pro Tempore Kevin Mullin and San Mateo County Supervisor David Canepa were leading a pack of seven candidates in the chance to fill a rare open congressional seat in San Mateo County, where Rep. Jackie Speier is retiring after seven terms on Capitol Hill.
Tuesday’s results set up the real showdowns in November, but Newsom, the Democratic governor, is expected to coast to victory over his little-known Republican challenger in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans roughly two to one.
In a tweet Tuesday night, Newsom drew on those differences, calling California an “antidote” to Republicans across the country “attacking our fundamental rights as Americans… “stripping a woman of the right to choose, and standing idly by as gun violence claims far too many lives.”
Across the country, Republicans are attacking our fundamental rights as Americans. Destroying democracy, stripping a woman of the right to choose, and standing idly by as gun violence claims far too many lives. (1/2)
— Gavin Newsom (@GavinNewsom) June 8, 2022
Dahle countered in remarks at his election night party that the November race will be about ending “25 years of one-party control that is out of touch with what’s happening to hard-working Californians. Gavin Newsom doesn’t understand what everyday Californians are going through, the price of a gallon of gas, the electricity rates, what it’s costing you in the store, the education system for your family.”
Newsom’s campaign has more than $23 million on hand going into the general election, according to campaign finance filings through May 21, even after spending $5 million so far this year. Dahle’s campaign raised $1.4 million this year, spending over a million so far leading up to the primary.
“I don’t think we’ll see any major threat to Gov. Newsom,” Kousser said. “He’ll be able to spend the rest of the year focusing on governing.”
With voters perhaps suffering from a political hangover of sorts from last year’s recall, turnout Tuesday was expected to be low: Only 3.9 million of 21.9 million ballots mailed out to registered California voters, or about 18%, had been returned by Election Day, according to to voter data firm Political Data Inc. The state’s lowest primary turnout was 25% in June 2014.
The highest primary turnout in a year without a presidential election was nearly 69% in 1978, when voters frustrated over high property taxes approved Proposition 13. But under Gov. Jerry Brown, California moved statewide ballot initiatives to the November ballot.
Political experts still found plenty to be intrigued about in Tuesday’s races.
Veteran political analyst Dan Schnur is closely following the San Francisco District Attorney recall, Measure H, and the Los Angeles mayor’s race, where real estate developer Rick Caruso and Congresswoman Karen Bass were headed for a November runoff to replace termed-out Eric Garcetti.
“The results of both will be very telling, not just in those two cities but perhaps to a statewide and national audience,” Schnur said. “These two very progressive electorates are worried about crime and exhausted by homelessness, so there are lessons to be learned about how state and national voters, particularly Democratic voters, are feeling about these issues.”
Those concerns didn’t seem to be denting Newsom or Bonta. Schnur said that’s because those races aren’t seen as being as competitive — Republicans haven’t won a statewide office in California since 2006. But experts were keenly interested in whether voters would tap a Republican or an independent declaring no party preference as Newsom’s and Bonta’s tough-on-crime challengers.
“Bonta will come out of the primary very strong, but depending on his opponent, that race could be very interesting,” Schnur said. “If he’s running against Anne Marie Schubert or Nathan Hochman, that could be a real problem for him.”
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George is Digismak’s reported cum editor with 13 years of experience in Journalism