The Front of the Any Man, which expressed the dissatisfaction of the bourgeoisie before the political class, was one of the first populist experiments of the recent history of Italyback in 1946. That same year the post-fascist Italian Social Movement appeared, progenitor of the current Brothers of Italy by Giorgia Meloni. And in the last 75 years, the country has had 67 governments, 11 of which have succeeded each other just in the last two decades.
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However, today is another story. It is so because never before, since the fall of fascism, has an extreme right-wing party like the Brothers of Italy grown so much in the polls, ranking as the first match by intention to vote for the general elections on September 25. The pandemicthe economic crisis subsequent and a decade of Italian prime ministers appointed without going through the polls have ended up rewarding this formation, the only one that has been outside all governments in the last 10 years.
An unprecedented scenario that alarms the foreign ministries of the great European countries and the Italian ‘establishment’ itself. The reasons are multiple.
Italya member of the G-7 and the G-20, has for years been a bridge between Moscow and the rest of Europe. However, with the technocrat mario draghi As prime minister, the country closed ranks with the rest of its allies, gave almost unwavering support to the Ukrainian government and gave Italy back a significant role on the European board. So much so that Roma was an important player when it came to promoting against Olaf Scholzthe German Chancellor, and Emmanuel Macron, the French president, Ukraine as a candidate country for entry into the European Union. This allowed Paris, Rome and Berlin to exhibit unity in the conflict with Russia.
Hence, in Russia they have celebrated the fall of Draghi, who achieved in a few months reduce Italy’s dependence on Russian gas (from 40% to 25%). A path, this one, whose continuation now seems doubtful due to the absence of a single position within the center-right coalition and the flirting of the two partners of Meloni —Matteo Salvinithe leader of the League, and Silvio Berlusconithe boss of Forza Italia— with Moscow.
In this sense, the changing of the guard can also realign power balances in the European Union and stop the integration between the member countries.
Different is the matter of atlantist position of Italy, that the right-wing coalition does not put up for discussion, as Nathalie Tocci, director of the Istituto Affari Internazionali, recently underlined. On the contrary, “the Euro-Atlantic anchor could even be strengthened after the elections”, Tocci opined.
The post-pandemic economy
Italy, the tthird economy of the EU, suffered a economic collapse terrible for the pandemicrecovered almost 7% last year and the GDP growth forecast is 3% for 2022, according to the IMF.
However, Draghi will leave before the approval of the next Italian budget law, a task that will remain in the hands of the new Executive, which is the one that must present the Italian plan to the European Commission.
Although analysts believe that Italy will stay on the line As agreed by Draghi, tensions are not excluded. The reason is also that the country is the recipient of almost 200,000 million euros in loans and subsidies of the EU recovery plan and must demonstrate that it will continue to comply with the objectives agreed with Brussels.
In addition, with the changing of the guard, the Franco-Italian axis, strengthened by Draghi and Macron. In fact, the latter also loses an ally for its plans to change the fiscal rules of the European bloc. Likewise, the “privileged collaboration” agreement signed last year by Rome and Paris, criticized at the time by Meloni and which caused bad humor in the Spanish and German chancelleries, remains in question.
The foreign (poor) enemy
A highly destabilizing factor in the relationship between Rome and Brussels was, during the stage of the Government of the 5 Star Movement with the League of Matteo Salvini, the harsh immigration policy of the leaguer Now, with the possible shift to the right, not only could Salvini return to power, but he would also have the support of Meloni, who also supports a strong hand against immigration.
The preamble is not the best. Salvini himself has opened his election campaign with proclamations against immigrationand Meloni has proposed a naval blockade off the coast of Africa to block the migratory route from the central Mediterranean.
“Yes to secure borders, no to massive immigration,” said the right-wing politician at a recent rally in support of Macarena Olona’s candidacy in Andalusia.
In their program, Meloni and Salvini also support the controversial proposal that the requests of asylum seekers be processed in centers located in non-EU countries.
The eventual takeover of the right-wing coalition also threatens to provoke tensions between Brussels and Rome due to Meloni’s open hostility towards the LGTBI collectiveat a time when there are already other European countries like Hungary who have been brought before the Court of Justice of the EU for laws that discriminate against this group. Even more so when, for Meloni, the issue is one of her great battle horses to criticize a left, according to her, “far from reality and from the problems of Italians.”
The feminist collectives also fear that Meloni could put into discussion the right to abortion, which in Italy was legalized in 1978 with the abolition of previous legislation dating back to the fascist era. Meloni herself has said that she considers voluntary interruptions of pregnancy “a defeat for society”, and the Government of The Brandsa region in the hands of the Brothers of Italy, has even blocked a directive from the Italian Ministry of Health authorizing clinics, and not just hospitals, to distribute the abortion pills. All this in a country where there is already a very high number of doctors who refuse to perform abortions.
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Eddie is an Australian news reporter with over 9 years in the industry and has published on Forbes and tech crunch.