Tuesday, May 18

Why is Ayuso sweeping? Keys and ins and outs of the GESOP survey on the elections in Madrid



1. Loyal electorate and strong transfers

The PP is training with greater voting fidelity (85.6%) and, in addition, it attracts half of the voters of Ciudadanos (51.9%) and a quarter of the electorate of Vox (24.8%). It is even the party for which two out of 10 abstentionists (19.6%) would opt. Unlike other electoral calls, the percentage of undecided is relatively low (20.4%) within hours of the start of the electoral campaign.

2. Cross ages

The intention to vote for the PP, like the PSOE, grows with age. Voters 60 years and older they are the ones who most support Ayuso (31.4%), ten points above the voters he has in the strip from 18 to 29 years old (21.5%). The PP candidate is only surpassed by another rival in this younger portion of the electorate, in which the most supported is Monica Garcia (More Madrid).

3. The right-wing favorite

One in three Madrilenians prefers Ayuso as president of the community, and the distance of the PP candidate with the socialist Angel Gabilondo it is 16 points. This is explained by the fact that the popular leader not only leads the preferences in her own electorate (89.5%), but also makes the voters of Vox and Ciudadanos prefer her over their own candidates. 55.5% of those related to Vox indicate it as a favorite against Rocío Monastery, which remains at 39.9%. And 58.3% of those who voted for Cs in 2019 bet on Ayuso before Edmundo bal (12.8%). This circumstance is repeated when giving notes to each leader. Orange voters even approve of Ayuso (6.4) and suspend Bal (4.1).

4. More support among the elderly

The management of the covid divides the opinions of Madrid, but although there are more who suspend it, the differences with respect to those who approve it are very short in all social segments. By age, the most critical of the regional president are the voters aged 45 to 59, who disapprove of his management by 49.3%, compared to 31.2% who approve it. The most benevolent with Ayuso are the voters 60 and over: 40.6% approve of their management of the pandemic and 45.2% suspend it. Just the opposite happens among the youngest (18 to 29 years old): 30.6% endorse it and 45.7% censure it.

5. A speech that goes deep

The most curious question of the GESOP asks the respondents to attribute a cause to the serious incidence of the coronavirus in the Madrid’s community. The result is that most point to reasons that have nothing to do with Ayuso’s management, whether Madrid is a most populated urban nucleus (36.9%) or the incivism of the people (11%), in many cases reaching deny one’s own premiseAccording to 17.4%, the pandemic has affected other areas of Spain in a similar way. That is, Ayuso’s speech has penetrated a large part of the electorate and his arguments are clearly shared by the voters of PP, Cs and Vox. But even one in three voters of Más Madrid (33.1%), one in four of the PSOE (25.3%) and almost half of the abstentionists (44%) attribute the impact of the Covid in the region to the largest population.

6. High support among outsiders

Diving into the guts of the survey reveals that the opinion on Ayuso’s management is more benevolent among citizens born outside Madrid that between native madrileños, which are much more critical. Support for the work of the president of the community reached 46.5% among those surveyed foreign born, 40.2% among those born in the rest of Spain and 32.6% among those born in Madrid. Consequently, Ayuso’s management failure is higher among those born in the region (49%), closely followed by those born abroad (46.2%) and, further back, by those born in other autonomous regions ( 39.5%).

7. The division of the left

It is undeniable that the PP benefits not only from absorbing one of its adversaries on the right flank (Ciudadanos), but also from the division on the other side of the board. A fracture into three parts that, to make matters worse, also fragments the alternative left to the PSOE. According to the survey, the sum of More Madrid Y United we can (22.3% of the votes and 33-34 seats) would be almost equal to the Socialists (23% of the votes and 32-34 deputies). The difference is just seven tenths, when in the 2019 elections it was no less than seven points. And mutual misgivings are noticeable. Angel Gabilondo is the highest valued candidate (one tenth above Ayuso) and passes, as Monica Garcia, among voters of all leftist formations. Instead, Pablo Iglesias he only manages to pass among his own. Always behind Ayuso, García is in second position in the preferences for president among those under 45 years of age, while Gabilondo takes the silver medal among those over that age.


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