Thursday, April 18

Winter Weather Advisory Issued For Sunday Snow: Expecting More To Be Added


February 12 2022

Saturday Late Morning Update

With the expectation of colder air and snow arriving overnight, there will be more stickage on the roads Sunday morning. Yes, that is considering the temps today reaching the mid 50s to near 60ºF.

While having The National Weather Service (NWS) issue these ‘advisories’ does add more validity to my forecast for you and the clients of my contracting clients, it does present some complications.

The counties included were now issued by the NWS in Sterling, VA. That covers metro Baltimore and Washington, west of the Bay. Much of Delmarva is under the guide of NWS in Mount Holly NJ. They are likely to issue advisories as well, just not on the same timeline.

Winter Weather Advisory

There is a split in the timing, simply based on the development of snow and temps below freezing tonight. This entire region can expect 1 to 2 inches of snow, with at most up to 4 inches.

This will impact plans for those heading to Church and other events between daybreak and noon.

*I will be adjusting my snow map shortly*

I expect snow to end BEFORE the book end of the Advisory timeline. But that later time is for roads that may be impacted after snow ends… Often NWS will ‘cancel’ and advisory early when conditions fit.

NEW Forecast Animation:

NAM 3 Km Model 10 PM Sat to 8 PM Sun

We can see some showers trying to break out tonight, but develop and expand after midnight.

Snow should be widespread by morning, and then push to Delmarva in the afternoon and early evening at the beaches.

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It will end around Baltimore by 10 AM, rhino Annapolis closer to Noon.

February-12-weather-snow-sunday-nam

Temperature Animation

1 PM Sat to 4 PM Sun: Watch The DROP This Afternoon

(Closer look at key time frames and snow below)

February-12-weather-temperatures-freezing

Snow Forecast: NAM 3 Km Comparison

Forecast From this morning

The update here may look like the stripe of heavy snow is broken, but the potential for nearly 2 inches of snow includes Frederick, Westminster, and Baltimore on the north end.

my First Call For Snowfall

If you have been following my forecasting at all, then you may have already been aware of my strategy: My ‘First Call’ is my town end confident number. This allows some wiggle room to the upside if needed. I prefer to not go the other way and drop down because that creates the impression things were overblown.

I will be expanding my snow impact and totals in my next report.

Central MD/Metro Baltimore

Biggest impact should be in the morning.

Southern Maryland/Delmarva

Snow lingers longer into the afternoon or evening by the beaches. There will be ore snow in this area, but warm ground to counter stickage. This is also the region that has a better chance to still be wet by evening, then ice up.

Also See: NWS Snow Maps

Click to see the official maps plus: High End AND Low end fore Maryland, PA, DE, VA, and WV

Let’s Start With the Temperatures

2 AM Sunday

The freezing line should be dropping south of Baltimore at this time.

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8 AM – After Sunrise

The freezing line reaches southern Maryland and south of Cambridge on the Eastern Shore.

Late Afternoon

Temperatures recover to near Freezing around Baltimore, with s thaw around metro Washington.

Concern on Delmarva with near freezing temps. Daytime roads may be wet, but will ice over after 5 PM through evening.

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ALSO SEE

ALL FITF GEAR

FITF THUNDERSNOW

Winter Outlook Series:

My Call For Snowfall

Last Winter Recap: My Old Outlook And Your Grades Of My Storm Forecasts

Winter Weather Page – Lots of resources

Solar Cycle Increasing Sunspots Suggests More Snow

Comparing 4 Different Farmer’s Almanacs: Majority colder winter outlook than NOAA

NOAA Winter Outlook- But Read The Fine Print

Signals For Early Start To Winter In November

Winter Outlook Series: La Nina Double Dip

Nor’easters May Give Hint For Winter La Nina Pattern

Winter Folklore Checklist

*Disclaimer due to frequent questions:

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here you may have missed it:

I have dyslexia, and found out at my second year at Cornell. I didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree, and being first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.

I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse.

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All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.

There is no editor that can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline.

I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me…

It’s part of my charm.

#FITF


justinweather.com

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