Thursday, March 28

WSJ News Exclusive | Half of Americans Doubt Biden Will Run in 2024, WSJ Poll Shows


President Biden

enters this year’s midterm elections with roughly half of Americans doubting he will seek re-election in 2024, with some citing the toll of the office on the country’s oldest president as the nation is facing a pandemic, high inflation and Russia’s war with Ukraine.

A new Wall Street Journal poll found that 52% of Americans don’t think Mr. Biden will run for re-election in two years, while 29% do expect him to pursue a second term. Nineteen percent are undecided about his future. Among Democrats, 41% said they think Mr. Biden will run again, while 32% said they didn’t think he would. The poll found 26% of those Democrats unsure.

Mr. Biden and the White House have said he intends to run for re-election. People close to the president have suggested he will make a final decision after November’s midterm elections.

But interviews conducted in recent weeks with dozens of voters, activists and local officials in the nation’s top battleground states, along with poll respondents, found a degree of ambivalence and uncertainty over whether Mr. Biden, who is 79 years old, should seek another term. The interviews also showed a lack of consensus on who should succeed him as the party’s standard-bearer should he retire from politics.

“You can run for president at 35. I don’t know why we would need the president to be over 75,” said Katie Smith, a 20-year-old junior at the University of Wisconsin-Superior who attended Mr. Biden’s event on the campus earlier this month and is unsure whether Mr. Biden should seek a second term.

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Students at the University of Wisconsin-Superior attended an event for the president earlier this month.



Photo:

EVELYN HOCKSTEIN/REUTERS

Those who thought Mr. Biden should seek another term said he had capably handled myriad challenges, including recovering from the steep economic declines of the coronavirus pandemic with a record level of job creation during his first year and working to debilitate Russia’s economy after President

Vladimir Putin

oversaw his country’s invasion of Ukraine.

“We’re not electing a marathon runner,” said

Al Williams,

a Georgia state legislator who would like Mr. Biden to run for another term. “He’s still

Joe Biden

whose heart is in the right place.”

Julie Hersch, a 55-year-old Democrat from Millcreek Township, Pa., said that overall Mr. Biden is doing well and she thinks he will run again. But when asked if he should, she said: “I just don’t know. He’s getting up there. I don’t know if it’s the best step for the Democratic Party.” She said she would vote for Mr. Biden if he runs again.

If re-elected, Mr. Biden would be 82 years old when he is sworn in to a second term, nearly a decade older than former President

Ronald Reagan

when he started his second term in 1985 at the age of 73. Mr. Reagan, at age 69, was the oldest president to take office until 2017, when former President

Donald Trump

was sworn in at the age of 70, a record later eclipsed by Mr. Biden.

President Ronald Reagan, with his wife Nancy, started his second term in 1985 at the age of 73.



Photo:

Cynthia Johnson/Getty Images

Some Republicans have sought to make Mr. Biden’s age an issue, portraying him at times as confused in public. Ex-Rep.

Greg Ganske

(R., Iowa) wrote last year that he believed Mr. Biden had declined since they served in Congress together and that there was “enough evidence to legitimately require an inquiry into his mental acuity.”

Longtime Biden associates acknowledged that the president is tired at times, given his advanced age, the demands of the job and more than two years of coping with the Covid-19 pandemic. They said he remains a forceful personality behind closed doors, demanding information from his staff and professing belief in his political strategies and ability to persuade Congress using the experience of his 36 years in the Senate.

“I do think he’s the same

Joe Biden

I’ve known for decades,” said Rep.

Debbie Dingell

(D., Mich.).

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One Democratic lawmaker who declined to be identified by name said members watched the State of the Union hoping Mr. Biden wouldn’t make a mistake. “Everybody was very pleasantly surprised with the State of the Union address and breathed a sigh of relief when it was over,” the lawmaker said.

Concerns over Covid-19 curtailed his campaign activity and have limited his international travel as president. He has taken roughly one domestic trip a week in recent months, and during the Ukraine crisis has been speaking to foreign allies early in the morning and late at night, according to White House aides.

Mr. Biden’s longtime doctor,

Kevin O’Connor,

said last year the president’s gait had noticeably stiffened due to age but he “remains fit for duty.” He said Mr. Biden was taking medication for nonvalvular atrial fibrillation, high cholesterol, gastroesophageal reflux and seasonal allergies.

The public doubt over whether Mr. Biden will run for re-election comes as the party is staring down challenging midterm elections, which could see Democrats lose seats in Congress and underscores continuing tensions in the party over the future policy direction. Mr. Biden ran for the Democratic nomination as a relative moderate, but while he has proposed some ambitious liberal policies, progressives continue to argue for a more dramatic policy shift. Public skepticism over whether Mr. Biden will or should run also could signal a tough campaign if he seeks another term.

Georgia Rep. Derrick Jackson says he doesn’t think President Biden will run again: ‘You don’t hear the same level of energy and enthusiasm’ in his voice.



Photo:

Alyssa Pointer/Atlanta Journal-Constitution/Associated Press

“I don’t think President Biden is going to run—not simply because of his age, but he’s been doing this for a very long time. You can hear it in his voice. You don’t hear the same level of energy and enthusiasm,” said

Derrick Jackson,

a Democratic state legislator from Georgia who is running for lieutenant governor.

Mr. Jackson said he expected Mr. Biden would attempt to position Vice President

Kamala Harris

as his successor. “We prefer to fight for a candidate that we know is going to have the enthusiasm, the vigor and the political chops to really fight for those things that are right. And President Biden is exhausted,” Mr. Jackson said.

White House chief of staff

Ron Klain,

in a virtual interview with the Economic Club of Washington this month, said Mr. Biden works out regularly and that his fitness “is beyond question.”

A Biden adviser said the president has told people he plans to run. The Biden political team is also investing in battleground states like Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona, Pennsylvania and Nevada—all important to this year’s midterm elections, but also to the 2024 presidential race.

The Wall Street Journal poll showed much different expectations among voters when asked if Mr. Trump would seek the White House again. Forty-nine percent of Americans expected Mr. Trump to run for a third time, while 27% said they didn’t think he would run again. The poll found 24% unsure about Mr. Trump’s future. Among Republicans, 60% think Mr. Trump will run for president again in 2024.

Former President Donald Trump has hinted at a possible 2024 campaign on numerous occasions.



Photo:

Joe Raedle/Getty Images

In a hypothetical head-to-head matchup, the poll found Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump tied at 45%.

Tony Fabrizio

—a Republican pollster who served as chief pollster for Mr. Trump in 2016 and 2020 and conducted the poll for the Journal along with the firm of

John Anzalone,

Mr. Biden’s 2020 pollster—said it was “fair to say that Trump has been more declarative in his intentions while not officially doing it.” Mr. Trump has teased a possible 2024 campaign on numerous occasions, including at last month’s Conservative Political Action Conference in Florida.

In an interview with ABC News in December, Mr. Biden said he planned to run again, but added: “I’m a great respecter of fate. Fate has intervened in my life many, many times. If I’m in the health I’m in now, if I’m in good health, then in fact I would run again.”

Asked about a potential rematch against Mr. Trump, Mr. Biden said facing his 2020 opponent would only “increase the prospect of running.”

For Democrats preparing to defend narrow majorities in Congress in the November midterm elections, Mr. Biden’s age and future status remain the subject of speculation among activists. Mr. Biden won in 2020 in his third attempt at the White House after serving eight years as former President

Barack Obama’s

vice president and after more than three decades in the Senate.

During his campaign, Mr. Biden often referred to himself as a “bridge” to the party’s next generation and heralded his choice of Ms. Harris to serve as his running mate, making her the first woman to serve as vice president.

Some of Mr. Biden’s supporters noted that the president hails from the same generation as Mr. Trump, making age a less important factor. Mr. Trump, at age 75, is about 3½ years younger than Mr. Biden.

“I don’t think it’s an issue. He’s only a few years older than Trump,” Lindsey Laney, a 69-year-old Democrat from Phoenix, said of Mr. Biden.

President Biden announced in early March a ban on Russian oil imports into the U.S., amid growing calls from bipartisan lawmakers to take action. The U.S. will also ban imports of Russian natural gas and other energy sources, Biden said. Photo: Kevin Lamarque/Reuters

Mr. Biden remains popular within his party—the poll found 83% of Democrats had a favorable opinion of him, while 15% had an unfavorable opinion.

Many Democrats interviewed credited his handling of the coronavirus pandemic, successful passage of a $1 trillion infrastructure law and his response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Others pointed to Mr. Biden’s attempts to unite the country following the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol and his efforts to coordinate an international response to the Russian invasion.

“He had to deal with the pandemic, the insurrectionists, the economy and he handled it well,” said

Keith Williams,

chairman of the Michigan Democratic Party’s Black Caucus. “As long as he’s healthy, he should run.”

President Biden ‘did his best to get everyone vaccinated,’ said one Michigan Democrat. ‘He inherited a mess.’



Photo:

Amir Hamja for The Wall Street Journal

Kristy Baisch, 48, of Dorr, Mich., said Mr. Biden “inherited a mess with Covid and he did his best to get everyone vaccinated.” She said she would “feel good about him being the Democratic nominee,” expressing hope that his stalled healthcare, education and climate-change plan might be accomplished in a second term.

Sherry Murray, 71, from Pittsburgh, said Mr. Biden was “doing about as well as anybody could possibly do given the circumstances.” But when asked if he will run again, she said: “I really don’t know. I think part of that is going to depend upon whether there’s any better candidate.”

Molly Murphy, a Democratic pollster who worked on the Journal poll, said many Americans are unsure if the two 2020 candidates will run again because they aren’t following presidential politics yet.

“A lot of the people we are talking to don’t spend that much time thinking about politics—they’re certainly not thinking about a presidential election years away,” Ms. Murphy said.

Democrats interviewed frequently cited Ms. Harris as a logical successor to Mr. Biden, but many pointed to other Democratic candidates who sought the nomination in 2020. Mr. Biden’s cabinet includes

Pete Buttigieg,

a former presidential rival now serving as Transportation secretary, and the president has maintained close ties to several Democratic senators who could mount a future presidential bid, including

Amy Klobuchar

of Minnesota,

Elizabeth Warren

of Massachusetts and

Cory Booker

of New Jersey.

Kamala Harris is the first woman to serve as vice president and would be a potential Democratic nominee should the president decide not to run again.



Photo:

EVELYN HOCKSTEIN/REUTERS

Kathy McCabe, 72, a retired teacher and Democrat from Harborcreek, Pa., said she was concerned about Mr. Biden’s age but wasn’t sure who she would want to run instead. “I love Pete [Buttigieg]. Beto [O’Rourke] might be a good choice,” she said of the Texas gubernatorial candidate who unsuccessfully sought the presidential nomination in 2020.

Garr Van Orden, a 38-year-old stay-at-home father from Provo, Utah, said he would be satisfied with Ms. Harris as the Democratic nominee should the president decide not to run again. But he also said the party should look to the future.

“Do I think he’s the best candidate ever? No. Maybe I’d be more interested in someone like

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

than him,” said Mr. Van Orden, referring to the 32-year-old New York congresswoman who would narrowly meet the constitutional age requirement to run for president in 2024. “But I think he’ll run again, and I will vote for him.”

Write to Ken Thomas at [email protected] and Catherine Lucey at [email protected]

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