The forecast record
Every call this site publishes is stored with a timestamp, a price and a deadline, then scored automatically when the deadline passes. Including the wrong ones.
How scoring works
A call names a direction, a confidence and a horizon, and is anchored to the price at the moment it was written. When the horizon elapses the price is read again. A move of more than 0.5% in either direction counts as UP or DOWN; anything inside that band counts as FLAT. If a price cannot be read at either end the call is voided rather than guessed — a record is only worth publishing if it admits what it could not measure.
Where the prices come from. Scoring uses a market data feed where one is available. Where it is not, the price is one the model found by searching, marked searched in the table below. A searched price is weaker evidence — the same system is producing the forecast and the number that grades it — so it is labelled rather than hidden. So far 0 scored calls used a feed and 0 used a searched price.